J Jayalalithaa’s aide VK Sasikala has made a strong claim on Dravidian icon CN Annadurai’s birth anniversary on Thursday that she would arrive at the party headquarters “when the time is right”. She further said the AIADMK will rid itself of the schisms and secure a victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
For the uninitiated, that might seem a clarion call to reinvigorate the beleaguered party plagued by factionalism since the death of Jayalalithaa six years ago.
But, Sasikala has been making bold claims about “redeeming” the party for 18 months now, ever since she stepped out of jail.
After serving a four-year term, Sasikala was released from Bengaluru jail in January 2021, just five months ahead of the assembly elections.
The political setting could not have been more dramatic. Here comes a lady who was the second in command to a politician deemed the only force that could stop the DMK in its tracks. In her absence, Edappadi Palaniswami, her trusted lieutenant who turned against her after she went to jail, had consolidated total power within the AIADMK while O Panneerselvam settled in the shadows without much say within the party. The DMK was strident in its anti-BJP stance and seemed ready to ride a wave.
Can she rearrange the equation and create trouble for the DMK? She did receive a grand welcome all along the way. Hundreds teemed by the convoy, throwing flowers and raising slogans.
“Chinnamma has arrived!” cried the cadre. She even travelled in Jayalalithaa’s car that bore the party flag — an indication that she is also staking claim to the legacy of the AIADMK.
And then came the dampener.
She made a statement in March last year — just a couple of months ahead of the polls — that she would “stay away” from politics, urging cadres to unite against the common enemy.
Cut to now, Sasikala appears to be an outlying contender to Jayalalithaa’s party, always along the perimeter of the AIADMK’s inner circle totally under the thumb of Palaniswami. On the other side of the perimeter is Panneerselvam, who recently fought a very bitter — and legal — battle to take control of the party and lost.
Many of Panneerselvam’s loyalists have jumped ship to the EPS camp. Loyalists such as KP Munusamy who had stood by him have now sided with Palaniswami. In a nutshell, the AIADMK remains in the hands of EPS, with both Sasikala and Panneerselvam remaining on the fringes, commanding less and less cadre support by the day.
Palanisami enjoys the support of more than 90% of the cadre. More than 70 out of 75 district secretaries have pledged support to EPS, precisely why VK Sasikala has time and again offered an olive branch to EPS calling for unity to fight the 2024 polls.
Political observers now say the time for Sasikala’s reinduction into the party is over. Initially, many were of the opinion that Sasikala could reunite the party and get the support of a few senior leaders. But when she planned state-wide tours to meet the public, she received a lukewarm response. The only senior leader who has openly sided with her is O Panneerselvam who is now taking all legal routes possible to stop EPS from becoming the general secretary of the party..
The BJP had won four assembly seats in Tamil Nadu in the May 2021 elections, taking the polls in alliance with the AIADMK. For all practical purposes, the BJP would attempt to make the AIADMK stronger caste-wise, by roping in Sasikala and Panneerselvam who had originally commanded sizeable following in the Mukkulathor belt in Madurai, and thereabouts.
For Palaniswami, who holds all the AIADMK aces, reinducting Sasikala, and probably sharing power — not just with her but some other leaders from her family — would amount to dismantling all the consolidation he has done since February 2017.
So, the question of reuniting AIADMK comes down to forcing Palaniswami to let go of — not completely but partially — the reins.
Obviously, this would not bode well for the DMK, which would like its principal opposition to remain divided by factionalism. In short, will Palaniswami give in for the greater good? Will he?
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