NEW DELHI - The temperature in Kashmir valley is at its peak with the increase in the number of encounters between security forces and terrorists.
Amid claims of reduced militancy, news of fresh encounters keep making headlines, almost every alternate day.
So far India has lost over two dozen security personnel while eliminating around 70 terrorists in the last six months.
The casualty figure and the ratio of security personnel killed against terrorists eliminated is a cause of huge concern.
The number of terrorists in the valley has gone down by every count. But there seems to be a tactical change in the pattern of their attacks.
Security forces and especially their convoys are increasingly being ambushed. Since January 2016, India lost 13 personnel in three major attacks targeting convoys of central paramilitary forces.
Most recent attack on the CRPF convoy killing eight police personnel is the second attack suffered by the force in Pampore area during last four months.
The grave situation prompted the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) in New Delhi to immediately send a high level team to J&K to review the situation and to put corrective measures in place.
It has now been decided that the CRPF convoys will have Armoured plated vehicles, Bulletproof protection and Mine Protected Vehicles (MPVs), also Army columns will escort the big convoys.
Summers usually turns out to be a time of increased terror activity in J&K.But recent intelligence inputs suggest that 2016 can be more violent as compared to past few years.
Sources in intelligence agencies confirm that there have been multiple inputs indicating towards terror plots to create widespread unrest and violence in Kashmir.
For this, sacred Amarnath Yatra could also be targeted. Efforts are being made to recreate the standoff of 2008, which widened the valley-Jammu divide on religious lines.
Recent developments of incidents in J&K only corroborate such inputs. The gathering of Hurriyat leaders on one platform over the issue of Sainik colonies in J&K was first such union of separatists post 2008.
At a time, when the new Chief Minister and her coalition government is still facing teething issues of governance, terror outfits are busy carrying our attacks, creating an environment of fear.
Incidents like alleged Aap Shambu temple desecration and outburst of public anger thereafter in Jammu, is an indication of volatile situation.
Any minor attack or controversy over Amarnath Yatra can induce widespread reaction, within the state and across the country. Safety of Amarnath Yatra is a major challenge for PDP-BJP state government as well as NDA government ruling in Centre.
With bilateral dialogue in cold storage, the present dynamics of India-Pakistan relation also give fair winds for terror influx and increased militant activities in Kashmir by Pak patronized terror machines.
Increased militant attacks coupled with ceasefire violations in coming months will not be surprising. This would not only increase the tension at the border but will give Islamabad a reason to internationalize the issue.
Border tension between the nuclear neighbours has always been a catchy phrase for Pakistan to sell. They may like to have its resonance again and especially among those who opposed India's bid for NSG membership.
Islamabad is surely happy after India lost out the NSG bid. Internal dynamics of Pakistan also suggest a favourable situation for Pakistani Army pushing ahead the agenda.
Ahead of any leadership change at GHQ Rawalpindi, Pakistani Army would like to assert further on policies related to India.
The GHQ, Rawalpindi would like to assert further, ahead of any leadership change, as Army Chief Gen. Raheel Sharif's is due to retire in November 2016.
PM Narendra Modi has rightly summarized the entire situation by saying that India needs to be cautious at every step in dealing with Pakistan. And thus, every organ of government would have to exercise utmost caution, within Kashmir and the surrounding areas.
A LOWDOWN ON RECENT TERROR ATTACKS IN J&K
- June 28,2016:A local Hizbul commander was killed in a gunfight between holed up terrorists & security forces in Kupwara district.
- June 25,2016: 8 CRPF troopers killed in an ambush by two LeT militants at Pampore. Militants neutralized.
- June 23,2016: 6 Pak militants killed in 2 encounters in Kupwara.
- June 23,2016: 3 militants killed in an encounter with security forces in Lolab area of north Kashmir.
- May 27, 2016: 6 militants and a soldier were killed in two separate Kashmir gun battles in a north Kashmir village near LoC.
- May 27, 2016: 2 militants were gunned down in a gun battle near Tangmarg.
- June 24,2016: 2 militants were killed in an encounter with security forces in north Kashmir's Uri sector, near the Line of Control.
- May 23, 2016: Militants shot dead 3 cops in two separate terror attacks in Srinagar and Tengpora.
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