It is the BJP’s sweet revenge in Maharashtra: two splits in 12 months, and putting a big question mark on the leadership of two major political parties of the state – Shiv Sena and NCP. Now, the saffron camp has absolute power for a makeover in the state’s political circles when seen in the context of numbers in the legislative assembly.
The BJP and Shiv Sena coalition had crossed the majority mark in the 2019 assembly elections, winning 161 seats together but could not form the government. The Sena, led by Uddhav Thackeray back then, demanded the post of chief minister and walked out of the alliance when the BJP did not relent.
The total strength of the Maharashtra legislative assembly is 288 seats and 145 were needed to win the trust vote. The BJP did try to form a government with Ajit Pawar’s first revolt in 2019, when Devendra Fadnavis and the NCP leader took oath as chief minister and deputy, respectively. But they could not get the support of other NCP MLAs and Fadnavis was in the CM’s office for only 80 hours before stepping down.
An unusual alliance was then stitched under Sharad Pawar’s guidance and Shiv Sena – in alliance with the BJP for decades and practiced a similar style of Hindutva politics – joined the NCP and the Congress claiming that it followed a secular political path with Uddhav as the CM. It was called the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) and proved majority on November 28, 2019, with the support of 169 members in the assembly.
Eknath Shinde – the big push
An unnatural alliance like the MVA could easily be broken and it saw the first sign in 2022. Hindutva being the core of its politics, most Sena MLAs were not comfortable in the MVA and demanded to return to the BJP-led NDA alliance. When the party’s top leadership refused to budge, over 40 of them under Eknath Shinde revolted.
The BJP welcomed the split and the rebellion dethroned the Uddhav-led government after 31 months. After a run of “resort politics” and court hearings, Uddhav resigned on June 29, 2022, ahead of the floor test and, subsequently, lost the party name and symbol to the rebellious faction that claimed to be the “real Shiv Sena”.
Uddhav’s government was replaced by the NDA government and in another political stunner, the BJP decided to make Shinde the CM. The alliance won the trust vote on July 4, 2022 and Uddhav decided to move away from the BJP-Sena alliance. But, now a Sena member, once nurtured by party founder Balasaheb Thackeray, was the reason it had gone back to its natural ally BJP. Events came full circle with Uddhav losing the party legacy and presidency.
The alliance – 106 BJP and 40 Shiv Sena MLAs – got 164 votes in its favour with support from others. The MVA had 112 members on its side – 15 MLAs from the Uddhav camp, 53 NCP MLAs and 44 Congress MLAs but only 99 voted, which was lower than the 107 votes the MVA got in the speaker’s election a day before. A total of 20 NCP and Congress MLAs were reportedly absent during voting.
And with Ajit Pawar, the circle is complete
The BJP’s second big bet was Ajit Pawar. It seems even after the first revolt failed in 2019, the party kept pushing for it. Back then, the senior NCP leader was unable to push the other MLAs but, this time, he has a letter of support signed by 29 MLAs with NCP heavyweights like Chhagan Bhujbal, Dilip Walse-Patil, Dhananjay Munde, and Praful Patel behind him.
Along with Ajit, eight other NCP MLAs took oath as ministers. While he is the second deputy CM, the portfolios of the others will soon be decided in a cabinet expansion.
The internal power struggle in the NCP was out in the open – Sharad Pawar versus Ajit Pawar – and battle lines were drawn on who will control the party ahead. Ajit wanted to align with the BJP but was denied. While the daughter – Supriya Sule – was promoted as the national face, the nephew was seen to be struggling to get a hold on the party. When Sharad Pawar resigned recently, only to take it back later, Ajit was the only leader to support the decision.
With Ajit now joining the NDA government in Maharashtra, its numbers have crossed the 200-mark in the legislative assembly. The MVA, meanwhile, that once showed a formidable future ahead based on numbers in its favour is down to 74 seats with Ajit claiming support of over 40 NCP MLAs. The MVA support is reduced to 16 Shiv Sena (UBT), 13 NCP-Sharad Pawar and 45 Congress MLAs.
From junior partner to seniormost
The BJP has only become stronger in the state. Its first reflection was seen in the June 2022 Rajya Sabha election. The MVA claimed the support of 170 members before the polls, but the effective strength it got was 162 as some decided to support the BJP.
In the MLC election the same month, collective MVA strength was reduced to 151 MLAs as 11 MLAs cross-voted in the BJP’s favour.
July 2022 put the power dice back in the BJP’s circle. Then, the NDA government was supported by 164 MLAs and, now, a year later, the numbers have gone up to 194 with Ajit’s letter of support of 29 MLAS. And it may go up to 204 if the NCP leader’s claim of 40 is realised.
The direction that Maharashtra politics takes can only be known with Lok Sabha, assembly and civic body elections ahead, but, as of now, the BJP is the largest party in the state and comfortably in the driver’s seat. Who matters more – Sharad Pawar or Ajit Pawar, or Uddhav Thackeray or Eknath Shinde – only poll results can tell. The BJP has proved to be the leading political party in Maharashtra, where it was, for decades, a junior partner to Bal Thackeray’s Shiv Sena.
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