After bearing the brunt of one of the hottest summers in recent years, most northwestern states in India are set to welcome the southwest monsoon this week. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the conditions are turning favourable for the seasonal rains to begin over Punjab, Haryana, and Delhi between June 30 and July 1.
One of the biggest rain-bearing systems, the southwest monsoon is a formidable force that significantly impacts the country’s agrarian economy. With the sowing of the Kharif season crops already on, farmers have been keenly awaiting the monsoon, which is expected to cover the entire country by the first week of July.
Hopes are high, as the weather department has predicted a normal monsoon yet again, with a likelihood of excess rains for central states. As per the forecast, it is likely to be 99% to 103% of LPA — the long period average is based on the average rainfall for the period from 1971-2020 and stands at 87 cm.
By Tuesday, the seasonal rains which provide 70% of India’s annual rainfall have already covered some parts of Uttar Pradesh, and are advancing into the remaining parts of Bihar, and some areas of Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hours.
According to the IMD, the system will continue to inch forward, and advance into some parts of Rajasthan, the remaining parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, and J&K, some parts of Punjab, Haryana-Chandigarh, and Delhi between June 30 and July 1. The region is likely to see fairly widespread rains with thunderstorms/lightning activity over the next few days with moist winds blowing from the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea over the northern states.
A heavy rainfall alert has already been sounded for Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and parts of Rajasthan at least till July 1. A red warning has been issued specifically for Uttarakhand on June 30 and Bihar on June 29, where the rains could be extremely heavy in isolated places.
As of Tuesday, the northern limit of the monsoon passes through the Ratlam, Shivpuri, Rewa, and Churk districts of Madhya Pradesh.
While the monsoon has been progressing at a normal pace, there have been large geographical variations. Out of the total 36 subdivisions, as many as 18, including Odisha, West Bengal, Vidarbha, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, as well as Haryana, have been reeling under deficient rains. The rainfall has been normal in 12 subdivisions, and excess in the remaining six, including Tamil Nadu, Assam, and Meghalaya.
The overall rainfall deficit of the country stands at 10%, with the highest deficit of 30% in central India.
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