West Asia is on the boil. The arc of conflict that was hitherto limited to Hamas and Israel has now expanded, sending tremors across global markets, security establishments, and deep-state actors.
Israel and its Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seem determined to take on their rivals in full-blown conflict. The multi-pronged war strategy of Israel Defence Forces (IDF) has flummoxed Shia and Sunni organisations across Iran, Lebanon, Yemen and other territories.
The ‘Axis of Resistance’, the brainchild of Iran, suffered a serious setback after Hezbollah supreme commander and General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah and half a dozen top commanders of this private militia were assassinated by Israel last week. Iran’s retaliatory missile strike on Israel seemingly failed to do much damage.
It’s not just top leadership and the Shura Council that got wiped out. Weapon depots and related infrastructure were pulled down, thereby dealing a body blow to Hezbollah. Simultaneous psychological warfare launched by Israel was unprecedented after Hezbollah, Houthi militants, and other lesser-known groups supported Hamas terrorists in their fight against the IDF.
After the Islamic Resistance Movement popularly known as Hamas, a largely Sunni terrorist organisation, attacked Israel on October 7 last year, other militias in West Asia have joined forces to take on Israel.
This is the fifth such bloody, violence-ridden conflict since 2008 between Hamas and Israeli forces after the Yom Kippur War in 1973. Single-handedly, Israel has taken on both Sunni and Shia militant groups on all three fronts: air, water and land conflicts.
Most security analysts averred that it was a proxy war between Hamas and Israel while the big boys were lending huge support to both sides. China has sided with Hamas. Russia too has lent support to Hamas against Israel. Though Moscow condemned the ‘terror’ act of Hamas, President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin has refused to designate Hamas as a ‘terrorist’ organisation.
If we go by the Chatham House analysis, the Chinese approach has been distinctly different. It went a step ahead and attempted to broker a ‘peace deal’ between competing Palestinian groups, Fatah and Hamas. And, recognition of Hamas gave a big impetus to this militant organisation in the Gaza Strip and West Bank.
On the contrary, both the United States and major European powers have solidly backed Israel in its conflict with Hamas and its allies. The US under either Democrats or Republicans over the years has been with Israel since the 1960s after having recognised it as a sovereign state. In the expanding conflict, as per reports, the US has provided support to Israel on multiple fronts.
In parallel, the US launched its own campaign against Islamic State (ISIS) to keep its terrorists at bay and prevent them from joining ranks with Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis. Major European powers have backed the Jews in their fight against Muslim militants and terror groups.
In the melee, Bharat has taken a very nuanced, strategically independent, balanced position. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has rejected all shades and forms of terror irrespective of the region or religion that they profess. Bharat was among the first few countries to condemn Hamas’ mindless invasion of Israel last October.
Also, Bharat-Israeli relations are strategic and multi-faceted across areas, especially in arms, ammunition, and technology transfers apart from non-strategic areas like agriculture, trade, investment and public digital infrastructure.
Bharat has not designated Hamas as a ‘terrorist’ organisation. But, New Delhi has not supported its ‘inhuman, violent, barbaric and faith-driven tactics’ that escalated after its initial hit on Israel in October 2023.
Bharat mooted ‘peace and stability’ in West Asia and rejected terror in all forms, hues, and shades. Bharat has been one of the few top countries that provided succour with food and medicines to conflict-ravaged Palestinians. Prime Minister Modi has emerged as a peacenik and plans to mediate between parties and secure a lasting solution to the vexed conflict. Condemning terror, New Delhi has demanded the release of all Israeli hostages held by Hamas as bargaining chips.
Bharat has big stakes in West Asia which accounts for over 70 per cent of its crude oil imports which is easily worth US $100 billion per annum. The escalation of the conflict would only disrupt crude supplies, leading to fluctuations in prices of both spot and deferred supplies. Oil imports are a big factor in Bharat’s economic policy-making while imported crude fuels her huge economic expansion.
Second, Iran has been a big Bharat ally in the region with trade and investment relations going beyond the normal. Bharat has been a partner in Tehran’s development of the Chabahar port, which would open up fresh opportunities in central Asian republics.
Third, with over 210 million Muslims, Bharat has a big balancing act to play out as she has been home to both Shias and Sunnis. Also, given the socioeconomic progression of Muslim minorities, it would like both sides to have structured discussions to ensure lasting peace.
Fourth, millions from the Indian diaspora have made West Asia their home for decades. Ensuring their security, and wellbeing, and protecting their businesses and jobs apart from Indian investments would take primacy.
Fifth, Bharat has earned its stars by keeping away from lobbies and coteries in this conflict. It has all the wherewithal to play a significant role in the region along with other key stakeholders.
Sixth, Prime Minister Modi has had meetings with both Israel’s Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in the last fortnight on the sidelines of Quad meetings in the US. His relationships with these two leaders along with world powers should positively be leveraged to bring about peace in West Asia.
The author is Director & Chief Executive of non-partisan think tank, Centre for Integrated and Holistic Studies. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.
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