Germany’s biggest nightmare is close to becoming a reality as Gazprom hints at playing out the worst-case scenario when it comes to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. The key gas pipeline was shut down by its Russian operator on the 11th of July for annual maintenance which generally lasts 10 days. However, this time around, there has been a palpable air of tension as Russia closes the taps. The pipeline flows may never restart or stay shut temporarily and Germany could go an entire winter without adequate power and heating supplies. That “worst-case scenario” as the German economy minister puts it, is coming to life as Gazprom just made a statement that throws a monkey wrench into all of Europe’s hopes.
Just recently, Canada temporarily waived sanctions on Russia to allow the transfer of a turbine, crucial to the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, to Germany. Ottawa announced a “time-limited and revocable” permit to allow the transfer irking Ukraine, which opposed the move deeming the exemption “totally unacceptable”. That however was the least of Germany’s worries as it pinned its hopes on the normal resumption of gas supplies from Russia through the key Baltic Sea pipeline.
Gazprom, on Tuesday, dashed that hope with a statement that read, “Gazprom does not have a single document that allows Siemens to bring back a gas turbine engine from Canada. Gazprom’s statement went on to hint that it cannot guarantee the resumption of gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. “In these circumstances, it is not possible to draw an objective conclusion about the further development of the situation on ensuring the safe operation of the Portovaya, which is a critical facility for the Nord Stream gas pipeline,” read the statement of the Russian gas giant.
Also Read: Putin is Winning the Energy War as Europe’s Paradoxical Drama on Russian Gas Imports Rages on
Earlier in June, Russia cut gas supplies to Germany through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline by 60%. At the time, Russia blamed the delay of the return of the turbine from Canada, even as Europeans saw the move as weaponisation of energy exports in the midst of a war. Now that Canada allowed the return of the component, Russia has cited another limitation. This will seem unreasonable to Europeans, confirming their longstanding fear that Russia is indeed weaponising gas supplies to its leverage and can go to the extent of ensuring that not only does Europe’s largest economy collapse under an energy crisis, but its population goes through a considerably cold and dark winter. Temperatures in Germany, for example, hit sub-zero levels during the peak of the winter.
Germany has been openly discussing plans to phase out Russian gas, imposing sanctions on Russian banks and other entities, and sending weapons to Ukraine to aid the Eastern European country in the war against Russia. Germany also terminated the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which was ready to become operational and would have doubled its Russian gas imports. So it does not come as a surprise that this was Russia’s cue to play hardball. Germany’s plans to store gas to prepare for the long winter ahead stand scuttled at the moment and its desperation quite openly set in when its economy minister said, “Everything is possible, everything can happen… It could be that the gas flows again, maybe more than before. It can also be the case that nothing comes.”
Shipments of liquefied natural gas from the USA have increased, but still remain an expensive and undesired option to the Germans. In fact, several European countries are reverting to coal notwithstanding their own climate change targets. Germany, Austria and the Netherlands are firing up retired coal power plants to save energy for the winter. The European Parliament is also busy greenwashing investments in nuclear and gas plants, energy sources that were earlier classified as dirty.
Yet, President Vladimir Putin’s leverage is not going to be easy to neutralise for Europe. The Nord Stream 1 alone supplies 55 billion cubic metres of Russian gas to Germany, meeting more than half of Germany’s annual requirement. The ambitious Nord Stream 2 pipeline would have doubled the stakes and so Russia as well as vested interests in Germany need the $11 billion pipeline to start functioning soon. Two days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Olaf Scholz government terminated the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which had been sitting idle for months. Putin is likely to get Germany to overturn the decision to freeze the Nord Stream 2 and also arm-twist Europe into walking back on the band of sanctions on Russia. With its largest economy under attack, the Eurozone has little anchorage to stay secure. Needless to say, Europe’s sanctions which were meant to bleed Russia have burned a hole in its own pocket in a spectacular way. While the ruble did not “turn into rubble,” Putin has been having a field day watching the West drive food and energy prices up, triggering a possible recession starting with Europe.
Did the Europeans not see this coming? European leaders seem to have believed that pressing sanctions on Moscow, cutting Russian banks from the global financial system and freezing Russia’s foreign currency reserves, all while being ridiculously dependent on Russian energy imports, would somehow put them in a winning position. Each week, since the war began, has proved otherwise. Russia has weaponised energy exports just as the sanctions were designed as weapons against it. At the end of the day, it is Europe’s crippling reliance on Russia for energy, which sours the West’s ambitious plans to choke the Russian economy into submission.
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