Bhawanipore Bypolls: BJP Hopes To Reduce Mamata’s Victory Margin

The bypolls for the high profile Bhawanipore Assembly constituency in West Bengal is over and both the ruling Trinamool Congress and opposition Bharatiya Janata Party are waiting for the results with bated breath. Though BJP is not claiming that its candidate Priyanka Tibrewal would win against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee but their main aim is to reduce the victory margin of the TMC supremo in her home turf, according to sources.

According to the Election Commission, the voter turnout in Bhawanipore, on the polling day September 30, was just over 58 per cent. However, the voter turnout was 61 percent in the recently concluded Assembly election. TMC candidate Shovandeb Chattopadhyay won the election by 26,000 votes.

As per the BJP’s assessment a larger voter turnout in Bengal means a lesser vote share for the ruling TMC. In the 2011 by-elections, the turnout in Bhawanipore was 44 percent and Mamat’s victory margin at that time was more than 54,000 votes. Again, when the turnout increased to 66 percent in the 2016 Assembly elections she won by around 25,000 votes. Therefore, calculations based on the past results show  that the TMC’s vote shares and voter turnout percentage are inversely proportional to each other.

This is exactly what the BJP hopes to achieve this time. A lower victory margin for the CM in her home constituency will enable them to declare a moral victory against the TMC. Also, the BJP has identified Ward no 77 as the main source of the TMC’s strength, while its own voter base is concentrated in ward numbers 63, 70, 71 and 74.

However, political analysts say that the BJP’s maneuvers might not work since this is just a byelection and there is no possibility of a change in government. In that case, a large chunk of the vote from the BJP’s vote bank is likely to go to the chief minister.

The results for Bhawanipore and two other Assembly constituencies, where the polling was held on September 30, will be announced on October 3.

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