Multiple weather agencies across the world have predicted the return of the La Nina during the monsoon period.
The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center (APCC) has made the first monsoon prediction in India. The Center has issued two separate forecasts – for the periods from April to June, and July to September.
Quoting the APCC predictions, an India Today report said India is likely to experience above-normal precipitation during its peak monsoon season from July to September.
The weather agency has attributed the forecast change to the recent ENSO alert which predicts a smooth transition from El Nino to La Nina condition.
What is ENSO Alert?
The ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) alert system update was introduced by the APEC Climate Center on March 15, 2024.
The current ENSO status predicts a La Nina WATCH from April to September 2024.
July-September Forecast
According to multiple global weather agencies, the La Nina conditions – cooling of the Pacific – may appear in June first, but are likely to be prominent in August and September.
“Enhanced probability for above-normal precipitation is predicted for the region spanning eastern Africa to the Arabian Sea, India, the Bay of Bengal, and Indonesia, the Caribbean Sea, the tropical North Atlantic, southern Australia, and the southern South Pacific. A tendency for above-normal precipitation is expected for some regions of East Asia and northern Australia,” the APCC Climate Center stated.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre, there is an 83% chance of a transition of El Nino (warming of the Pacific) to ENSO neutral by April-June.
“The El Nino is gone and a cold phase is coming. This raises the prospect of a good monsoon. We can rule out the chance of a dry-patch in the upcoming monsoon season. A better picture will emerge by May,” M Rajeevan, former Secretary, the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences was quoted by Deccan Herald as saying.
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