Even as gross domestic product (GDP) data for the January-March 2023 quarter is due for release on Wednesday, May 31, analysts have a range of growth forecasts from 4.9 per cent to 5.5 per cent for the quarter. SBI expects growth at 5.5 per cent for the fourth quarter of 2022-23, rating agency Icra sees 4.9 per cent growth, and Reuters‘ poll pegs it at 5 per cent. Here’s what various analysts expect regarding the GDP forecast:
In the third quarter of the current fiscal 2022-23 (Q3 FY23), the Indian economy grew 4.4 per cent in October-December 2022 compared to 11.2 per cent year ago. India’s economic growth for 2021-22 was also revised upwards to 9.1 per cent from 8.7 per cent earlier.
Icra has said that notwithstanding higher volumes for most indicators, India’s GDP growth is likely to moderate to 6.9 per cent in 2022-23 from 9.1 per cent in 2021-22 given the margin compression in some industrial sectors owing to higher commodity prices, even as services sector displayed a robust performance in the year.
According to Reuters’ poll, the Indian economy is likely to grow 5 per cent in Q4 FY23, up from 4.4 per cent in the preceding quarter, the May 16-25 poll of 56 economists showed. Growth was forecast to average 6 per cent for the current financial year and then improve to 6.4 per cent in 2024-25.
Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economic advisor of State Bank of India Group, said, “SBI’s model, based on 30 high-frequency indicators from key sectors, and tuned/trained to project the GDP numbers forecasts the quarterly GDP growth for the Q4FY23 at 5.5 per cent. At this rate, India’s GDP growth for FY23 is likely at 7.1 per cent.”
Ghosh said that there are signs of a renewed surge in resilient manufacturing while supporting services sector to embrace enhanced efficiency.
According to the latest Monthly Economic Review report by the Finance Ministry, companies have started investing in new capacity, buoyed by sustainable growth in activity.
During the monetary policy review in April 2023, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said India’s real GDP is projected to have grown by 7 per cent in the financial year 2022-23. Hence, economic activity remains resilient. On the supply side, the rabi crop production is estimated to increase by 6.2 per cent in FY23.
RBI said India’s real GDP growth for FY24 is projected to grow 6.5 per cent, with Q1 at 7.8 per cent, Q2 at 6.2 per cent, Q3 at 6.1 per cent, and Q4 at 5.9 per cent. Risks are evenly balanced.
Comments
0 comment