The Samajwadi Party lost both of its bastions of Azamgarh and Rampur to the BJP in the parliamentary bypolls on Sunday, with the results being seen as an indicator for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The defeat is considered a major setback to the Samajwadi Party as Azamgarh was once considered a strong bastion of party patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav, while Rampur was always seen as a stronghold of SP leader Azam Khan.
Both parliamentary seats were vacated after Akhilesh Yadav and Azam Khan resigned as they decided to continue as members of the UP legislative assembly. Contrary to the results, it was also speculated by many that SP would retain both the seats due to the strong Muslim-Yadav (MY) combination. But players like Bahujan Samaj Party, selection by BJP and absence of Akhilesh Yadav from campaigning on either of the seats spoiled the SP’s game.
The Bharatiya Janata Party fielded Azam Khan’s former aide Ghanshyam Lodhi from Rampur, while Bhojpuri singer Dinesh Lal Yadav ‘Nirahua’ was once again given the ticket from Azamgarh. Nirahua had also contested against Akhilesh Yadav from Azamgarh in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls but had lost then. Also, the alliance between SP and BSP in 2019 had helped the party in winning Azamgarh by a huge margin as Akhilesh Yadav had bagged more than 6 lakh votes while Nirahaua had polled around 3.6 lakh votes.
On the other hand, the BSP can also be considered as one of the major factors responsible for the SP’s defeat in the Lok Sabha bypolls. While BSP didn’t field any candidate in Rampur, it gave a strong candidate like Guddu Jamali in Azamgarh where Muslim, Yadav and Dalit vote banks are considered decisive. The area has been considered a stronghold of SP, but BSP also has a good base here. In 2019, the SP and BSP were in alliance when Akhilesh Yadav had won by a huge margin but in the 2022 bypolls, the BSP candidate bagged 2,66,106 votes while SP got 3,03,837 votes and BJP got 3,12,432 votes.
In the 2022 assembly elections, SP won all the 10 assembly seats of Azamgarh, but one key factor during these elections was considered to be strong consolidation of Muslim voters behind SP. However, after the assembly elections, there had been voices of dissent from some key Muslim leaders within the Samajwadi Party. BSP chief Mayawati was also seen trying hard to get back the lost support of Muslim voters. The decision by BSP to give ticket to Guddu Jamali was seen as a step to strengthen the party’s hold on Muslim and Dalit voters.
The absence of Akhilesh Yadav proved to be the last nail in the coffin, especially as an aggressive BJP saw campaigning by several leaders, including UP CM Yogi Adityanath. Senior SP leaders were seen campaigning with Dharmendra Yadav and Asim Raza but absence of Akhilesh Yadav became the talk of the town in both Azamgarh and Rampur. Taking advantage of the situation, BJP leaders had said Akhilesh Yadav had already accepted defeat and was thus not going for campaigning.
After losing two bastions, the question that now arises is the road ahead for the Samajwadi Party chief. While Shivpal Yadav’s absence made a dent at the organisation level, the dissent among Muslim leaders is also now out in the open, with the results being a clear indicator. With multi-pronged challenges within the party and family, the road for 2024 elections will not be easy for Akhilesh Yadav.
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