As results trickled in from all the five states where elections were held, the Gandhis watched in dismay. But in Delhi, not too far away from where they sat, some members of the so-called “G23” shook their heads and said, “The more things change, the more they remain the same.”
After the last round of state polls when the Congress had delivered a duck, Kapil Sibal was the first to speak out and asked for introspection within the party. That it never happened, is reflected in the present results where the Congress has lost out even in states where it had expected to do well, like Uttarakhand and Goa.
This time too, many within the G23, or group of 23 dissenters, are planning to speak out. Some like Manish Tewari and Kapil Sibal, who despite being from Punjab were left out during the poll planning process, are expected to ask some questions to the Gandhis. On target are those who were part of the inner coterie, like KC Venugopal, Harish Chaudhary, Ajay Maken, and Randeep Surjewala. “There is a harem which is running the show. They are incapable of winning and they stop the chances of winning for the party,” said one of the dissenters.
Have a look at the takeaways from the results:
• The Congress’s vote share in Punjab has declined massively from 38.5% in 2017 to 23.3% in 2022.
• From the single largest party in 2017, the Congress has become a distant second in Goa and Manipur. In both states, the party’s vote share has declined.
• The Congress’s vote share in Manipur has also halved from 35.1% in 2017 to 17% in 2022.
• An alliance with the Congress is disastrous for parties. The GFP won 3 seats in 2017. It’s now winning just one after tying up with the Congress.
• Consistent trend of Congress governments failing to get re-elected.
• No Congress government has got re-elected in a big state since Assam in 2011.
• Punjab has become another case of Congress incumbent governments failing to get re-elected and facing miserable defeats.
• After Delhi, now Punjab has become the second state where the Congress’s decline has led to AAP’s rise.
•And the worst part is that in the erstwhile family bastions of Amethi and Raebareli, the Congress has scored a zero.
WHAT IT MEANS FOR THE GANDHIS
A loss of face. But chances are that they will get away as the inner group will rush in to defend them, saying that they don’t influence state polls. But it’s not entirely true. In the case of Punjab, it was the Gandhi siblings who had made up their mind on ousting Captain Amarinder Singh. Just three months before the polls, they had played the Dalit card and chosen Charanjit Singh Channi as the chief ministerial face. The manner in which the Captain was removed and Navjot Singh Sidhu was appointed the state unit chief added to the already fragile Congress’s problems. Infighting and threats became the hallmark of the party even as AAP was pushing for a major fight.
It will become difficult for the Gandhis now to talk of any leadership change in Congress-ruled Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Their aura and awe have been dented further. The loss has been more for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra whose foray into active politics for the first time has not matched the eyeballs she grabbed during her high voltage campaign with results. Will she actually stay back in UP for 2024 as she has promised?
‘G23’
They are likely to become shriller and perhaps now will gain more traction. The earlier stand of the Congress dismissing them as traitors and opportunists may not hold water anymore, and so they could gain more voices. The last time round they had compelled Sonia Gandhi to call for a meeting and assure them that things would change. They haven’t. This time, there will be more pressure on Sonia to take complete charge, go in for a major overhaul and make the much-needed changes. But it would be tough for her to sideline her son and this, many feel, is the main issue that needs to be addressed.
OPPOSITION-MUKT CONGRESS
Most opposition parties look at the Congress as a liability. In fact, in the middle of the Goa polls, the Trinamool Congress had changed track and told the Congress to join hands to keep the BJP away. The Congress refused and today the picture leaves the TMC vindicated. Mamata Banerjee had said, “The Congress is a liability…”
For opposition parties, Arvind Kejriwal has emerged as a new key leader. His is the only regional party for now that has governments in two states. He, like Narendra Modi, is a 24×7 politician and has eyes on states where there is a straight fight between the BJP and Congress: Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Gujarat, etc.
If one goes by past records, it’s highly unlikely that the Congress would change or fix accountability. A senior G 23 member told News18, “How can they? The problem begins from the top. How many times do you think Rahul Gandhi can resign? They will keep losing elections and we will be forced to fend for ourselves.”
And chances are that many more from the Congress will now want to look beyond the party. Even if it means being called traitors.
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