Gujarat post-poll survey: Narendra Modi-led BJP set to win 129-141 seats

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The Modi regime is riding on a pro-incumbency wave with a majority of the voters in favour of re-electing him.

New Delhi: Narendra Modi will continue to lord over Gujarat for the next five years as he is all set to score a hat-trick of electoral victories and lead the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) back to power. According to the post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) and seat projections by Chennai Mathematical Institute Director Rajeeva Karandikar, Modi will steamroll the opposition and become the chief minister of Gujarat once again.

The post-poll survey of 3755 persons at 239 locations in 60 constituencies in Gujarat shows that Modi is going to better the 2002 and 2007 results and win by a very handsome margin. While the BJP will have a vote percentage of 48, the party is going to win 129-141 seats (the party had won 117 in 2007 in the 182-member Assembly) with the Congress trailing far behind with 36 per cent of the votes and its worst show in the state with only 37 to 45 seats (the party had won 59 in 2007). The other smaller parties would garner 16 per cent of the votes and end up with 4 to 10 seats (others had won six seats which included three by the NCP, one by the JD(U) and two Independents in 2007).

What is surprising that even though the BJP is losing one per cent of the votes as compared to the 2007 elections, the party is set to win at least 12 seats more than last time. The Congress's votes too is down two per cent from the 2007 figure and the other smaller parties are also losing four per cent votes all of which is being cornered by Keshubahi Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party, which didn't exist in 2007.

The Modi regime is riding on a pro-incumbency wave with a majority of the voters in favour of re-electing him. In fact, the BJP is way ahead of the Congress in all the regions of the state. Despite Keshubhai Patel's GPP being strong in the Leuva Patel-dominated Saurashtra, it is the BJP which is getting the maximum votes there. In North Gujarat, the BJP gets 54 per cent of the votes and it is only Central Gujarat where the Congress comes within touching distance of its political opponent.

In Saurashtra and Kutch (54 seats), the BJP is ahead of the Congress with the GPP making inroads at the expense of vote share of both the national parties. IN North Gujarat (53) the BJP is comfortably ahead of the Congress while in Central Gujarat (40) even as the BJP leads but there is close contest in some regions. In South Gujarat (35), too, the BJP is way ahead of the Congress.

In the race for the chief minister, too, Modi faces no opposition as 46 per cent of the voters prefer him with his closest rival Shankersinh Vaghela getting just six per cent of votes. The 2012 figure is the highest rating that Modi has enjoyed.

The most important election issues were price rise, electricity/water/road, farmers' issues/problems, employment, corruption, Gujarat's development and Gujarat's leadership in that order. Not surprisingly the BJP is considered to be the best suited to deal tackles the problems.

But Modi's leadership is not a big issue with 55 per cent of the voters saying they would have backed the BJP even if Modi had not been the party leader, which is a fall of six per cent from the 2007 figure of 61 per cent.

GUJARAT POST POLL 2012 SURVEY FINDINGS – PHASES I & II TOGETHER

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Figures for women represent share of female electors in total electorate as per ECI; Figures for Urban, SC, ST, Hindu, and Muslim share in total population are based on Census 2001.

Note: All figures are in per cent; GPP or Gujarat Parivartan Party did not exist in 2007

Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Pre Poll survey was conducted between 13 Oct and 20 Oct 2012; Post Poll survey was conducted between 13 Dec and 18 Dec 2012.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest for others

Note: All figures are in per cent; identical question was asked in Post Poll survey of 2007.

Note: Saurashtra and Kutch includes the districts of Kutch, Surendranagar, Rajkot, Jamnagar, Porbandar, Amreli, Junagadh and Bhavnagar. North Gujarat includes the districts of Banaskantha, Patan, Mehsana, Sabarkantha, Gandhinagar and Ahmedabad. Central Gujarat includes the districts of Kheda, Ananad, Panchmahals, Dahod and Vadodara. South Gujarat includes the districts of Narmada, Bharuch, Surat, Dangs, Navsari and Valsad. Figure in brackets indicates total number of seats in the region

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

All figures in Columns 2, 3 and 4 are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion; Figures for 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2012 are from Post Poll Surveys; Figures for 2002 are from a Pre Poll Survey.

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest gave other preferences or had no opinion

Note: All figures are in per cent

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest of the respondents could not say; all figures based in either Pre or Post Poll surveys conducted during Assembly elections

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest said neither or had no opinion

Note: All figures are in per cent

Note: All figures are in per cent; Rest had no opinion

Note: All figures are in per cent; identical question was asked in the 2007 survey.

VOTE BY SOCIAL BACKGROUND AS PER POST POLL SURVEY

Note: All figures are in per cent; Figures in brackets indicate change since the 2007 election

Note: All figures are in per cent; ’sympathizers’ here are those respondents who said ’Yes’ to the question ’Do you participate in any RSS or VHP activities/programmes?