Thiruvananthapuram: With less than a month for the state to go to polls, the parties have begun their campaigns in full vigour. Political speeches, loudspeakers announcing the quality of the candidates, election conventions, and candidates visiting voters are the order of the day.
Political analysts feel that the electoral climate is not completely in favour of either the Communist Party of India-Marxist-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) or the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).
BRP Bhaskar, a senior analyst, said that both sides were in bad shape and that after the candidate selection process, the LDF is at a greater disadvantage.
Of the 20 constituencies, the LDF has fielded six independent candidates, including a film star and two former congress leaders. Bhaskar said that most of the independent candidates did not have any previous association with the Left. Many supporters of the party themselves are not very happy about this.
The UDF, on the other hand, has fielded 13 of their sitting MPs. Peethambara Kurup of Kollam and PT Thomas of Pathanamthitta, however, were two UDF leaders who had to give up their sitting seats.
Tharoor ahead
There is tough competition for the Thiruvananthapuram constituency where Minister of state Shashi Tharoor is seeking a re-election. Here the BJP has a strong candidate in O Rajagopal, whereas the CPI could not even manage to bring out a strong leader from the party. Instead, they opted to bring in DR Bennet Abraham as an independent candidate.
The Left's idea behind bringing Dr Bennet as the candidate is to appeal to the Christians in the constituency.
Political analysts feel that Tharoor has a better chance in Thiruvananthapuram as his personality is widely acceptable and the general concept is that he has taken measures for development in the constituency.
But on the flip side, he has been bogged by too many controversies.
The voters may not be really influence by the Twitter or the IPL row. But the controversy surrounding his wife Sunanda Pushkar's death will be something that will bother him.
During the campaign, the topic will come up and it depends on how the voters, especially women, react to it. But there is not much for the Left to rejoice as this is likely to help the BJP more than the Left.
The BJP might improve their position in percentage of votes scored but will find it difficult to win a seat.
The AAP candidate, former IPS officer Ajit Joy, is not well-known in the constituency. Bhaskar said that if BJP opens their account in the state it will be from Thiruvananthapuram constituency. The main problem with the BJP in Kerala is that their Hindutva ideology has not found many takers in the state.
The other disadvantage is that their voters or partymen are not concentrated in one geographical area so that makes it difficult for them to win a seat here.
For the CPI-M and the LDF, the Kollam constituency will be a fight for pride as one of their key allies, the RSP, moved out of the front and is contesting as with the UDF now. Kollam has traditionally been with the Left but last time, Congress MP Peethambara Kurup managed to win. MA BABY, MLA and CPI-M politbureau member, is the Left candidate whereas former minister NK Premachandran is the UDF candidate. The LDF's votes will be divided as the RSP has vote-base in Kollam. Meanwhile, the voters will have some confusion about the candidates as few weeks back they were fighting together against the Oommen Chandy government and both follow Left ideology.
Advantage KV Thomas: Anita Pratap unknown
In Ernakulam constituency, the fight is between Congress's sitting MP and union minister of State KV Thomas, Christy Fernandez, the LDF independent candidate and journalist Anitha Pratap of AAP. Political analysts feel that the chances are in favour of Thomas as Pratap is not well known in the constituency.
Vadakara is one constituency where Revolutionary Marxist party (RMP) will have some say in the candidate's prospects. RMP will be able to fetch at least some percentage of the Left votes. The UDF candidate here is Union minister of State Mullapally Ramachandran and AM Shamseer is the LDF candidate. It is the first election after the murder of RMP's leader TP Chandrashekaran. RMP has formed a Left United Front and has fielded candidates in other constituencies also.
Idukki constituency, the traditional vote bank of Kerala Congress, might not be with the party this time. The implementation of the Kasturirangan report that sought to safeguard the Western Ghats, created a rift between the people and the government.
Joyce George, the legal advisor of the High Range Protection Council, is the LDF candidate. Their aim is to penetrate into the UDF vote bank. Congress was forced to not field their siiting MP PT Thomas due to this issue and instead fielded youth Congress state president Dean Kuriakose.
In Malappuram, though, there were voices against E Ahmad's candidature. The chances are that he will win due to the strong hold of the Muslim League in the area.
The price hike of essential commodities, solar scam and implementation of the Kasturirangan report may hit the Congress's prospects; whereas the recent political developments, TP Chandrashekaran murder case can hurt the LDF. Meanwhile, VS Achuthanandan's stand and his active campaign can affect the Left's prospects in the state.
Though the AAP and the BJP are trying hard to open their account in the state, it is difficult as there is no such political wave in Kerala.
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