'Left is the new untouchable in Indian politics'

The Left Front has finally delivered its threat and withdrawn support to the Congress-led UPA Government. The Government is in minority in Parliament now but many political analysts say the Left going is a blessing in disguise. The Government can now carry on with the Indo-US nuclear deal and economic reforms, the say. Is the Government better off without its Left partners? IBNLive readers asked Diptosh Majumdar, CNN-IBN's National Affairs Editor, in a web chat. (Excerpts from the chat on July 10, 2008)

Mahesh: If the Left is allergic to US couldn’t they have insisted that after IAEA and NSG we don’t deal with US and instead buy tech from Russia/ France?

Diptosh Majumdar: That was a suggestion given in some quarters but I do believe that the Americans do want this market and will not hand it over easily to other equally keen players.

Mani: Is the attitude of Prakash Karat nothing but arrogance and immaturity?

Diptosh Majumdar: I cannot describe Prakash Karat's way of going about his politics extremely wise. Let's leave it at that. Mr Karat is a remarkably honest man, who works with huge commitment and belief but he must realise that ideologies are never cast in stone. Their application is to be guided by pragmatism.

Sundarji: The Left has been very unreasonable. Don't you think that they need to be taught a lesson? I feel Prakash Karat is unable to swallow that Dr Manmohan Singh is standing up to him firm and equally on all fronts intellectual and subject wise.

Diptosh Majumdar: I am also surprised that Dr Manmohan Singh has turned out to be such a smart tactician. He has outwitted not just Left adversaries but even us the tribe of journalists who thought that he would never be able to push through this deal. He has proved to quite a tough politician. We had all assumed that he would never graduate to become a politician.

Gundurat: Is the Left more sinned than sinned against?

Diptosh Majumdar: The Left is sometimes misunderstood because of the manner in which they go about things. We must realise the sea change in Indian polity. It was the educated middle-class who voted for the Left earlier but now the Left has long lost that support base. The middle class has moved on and become bourgeois and corporate. The Left's new voters are mostly in the countryside. In Kerala you cannot really distinguish between the city and countryside but in West Bengal, Kolkata rarely votes for the Left. If they won all the Calcutta parliamentary seats last time it was because Trinamool and Congress cancelled each other’s votes out.

R Sundaram: I feel that this is a good moment in country's politics when the Left can be left behind and the government of the day can really concentrate on the welfare of the downtrodden. Do you agree?

Diptosh Majumdar: The Left has been left behind. I have spoken to a number of parties. Some of them like the UPA allies RJD, NCP and DMK say the Left are good people but all of them would rather do business with a pliant Congress than a rigid Left. So, in a way, the Left is the new untouchable in Indian politics. In a way, it's sad because every country needs a bit of the Left—not too much may be but quite a bit definitely.

Dheerendra R: Do you agree with my view that this whole free hand given to the PM by Sonia Gandhi is a master strategy to ensure that post 2009 general election, if at all there is any chance of Congress forming Government with the Left, then Manmohan would not become the PM. This means that either Sonia herself or Rahul can be made PM, without losing the goodwill generated by Manmohan?

Diptosh Majumdar: Sonia is cleverer than that. I don't expect Rahul Gandhi to be pushed to the throne before 2011 at least even if the Congress somehow makes it to the Delhi masnad again.

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Raman: If the nuclear deal is finalized can India be sure of nuclear fuel supply? Well, the support that some countries are showing does make us think there will be no problems but we always have to make sure that we do not become completely dependent on nuclear energy in this century.

Diptosh Majumdar: We have to discover technology on our own to convert thorium into nuclear fuel till then the Nuclear Suppliers Group countries will bail us out. As for your other fears which you don't really spell out let me just tell you that issues like Kashmir can never be linked to the deal.

Samuel Thomas Mokale: Will the Congress goes for general elections early?

Diptosh Majumdar: Congress can't do that because it's politically unwise. The economic situation is grim; people don't vote on whether the country has got a nuclear deal or not—people vote on issues which touch their lives directly. Besides all the UPA allies, NCP, RJD and DMK, are going to face anti-incumbency. They want the government to last the whole term.

Subramanya: Do you think UPA can pull through this floor test? Do you consider Manmohan Singh as a better PM candidate than Advani or even Vajpayee?

Diptosh Majumdar: I believe they can. In fact, I'll be very surprised if the UPA loses this floor test. They are all different kind of Prime Ministers. Manmohan is father of economic liberalism. Advani was a good Home Minister but has found it difficult to make himself a leader acceptable to all. Vajpayee has been my favourite Prime Minister because he was the most complete politician of the post-Indira Gandhi era.

Zaheer: Why do you think that Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee is silent in Bengal, if not indirectly supporting the deal?

Diptosh Majumdar: You have to accept the fact that the CPI-M is ideologically opposed. America remains a dirty word in Communist lexicon. We can't really blame the party for that. That has been their consistent standpoint for long. The question is why is the party not changing. I think left to his own Buddhadev would have changed. But then he is not the person who is guiding the party ideologically; we need to figure out why the CPI(M) is running away from reality by using old ideological yardsticks? Who are ideologues in the party responsible for that?

Sai: The results of the next general elections crucially hinge on the alliance politics that pans out in UP. How do you think things will pan out in UP. And would the UPA be able to get an absolute majority in 2009?

Diptosh Majumdar: The UPA getting absolute majority on its own unlikely, very unlikely. The SP-Congress-RJD is an interesting alliance in Uttar Pradesh, but SP was born out of Lohiaite anti-Congressism and largely depends on Muslims and OBCs. The OBCs have never voted for the Congress for 40 years now. Will that vote be easily shared between the Congress and the SP. Also, the two most secular parties are going for the deal but will the Muslims be convinced that they aren't doing President George Bush a favour. It's an interesting alliance but Mayawati will still be strong in UP.

Toney Joseph: Is the UPA Government more interested in political advantages than national interest especially in the case of nuclear deal?

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Diptosh Majumdar: There is no political advantage in pursuing the nuclear deal. The Congress knows that. It couldn't just give up a Prime Minister who insisted that without the deal he will not continue in office. And I think the Prime Minister's decision wasn't really wrong. It may not be the best political decision given the nature of politics practised in the country but the implications of the deal will be understood five years from now.

B K S Chauhan: What will be the step of the President as all eyes are on her? Will she ask Manmohan Singh to prove his majority?

Diptosh Majumdar: There is no constitutional provision which says the President should ask Manmohan Singh to prove his majority. But the Congress is smart. They are planning to take a trust vote on their own and I think they are in a good position to win. The trust vote will be taken before the IAEA passes the agreement on July 28. The trust vote may be taken between the 21st and 23rd.

Jagannadha Pawan: It is kind of surprising to see the role media is playing. In trying to appear neutral it is giving a lot of space for the views of Left instead of building a strong public opinion in favor of the deal. Why is media not coming out strongly in support of the n-deal when it is so much in the strategic interests of India?

Diptosh Majumdar: The media can only report. Should it give out its views? I agree with you that in terms of strategic interests this deal is great. But then the government even when it wins the trust vote will never get more than ten to twelve seats more than the halfway mark. So there is a big anti-deal view within the country which the media needs to reflect as well. But if you have read my answers carefully you can make out that I haven't really spoken out against the deal.

AS: How much would the BJP gain by this whole drama?

Diptosh Majumdar: The BJP would have loved to ink this deal if it was in power. L K Advani would have love to be its architect instead of Manmohan Singh, but the BJP can gain a lot by highlighting the fact that the Prime Minister pursued a deal when inflation was nearly 12 per cent.

Blesson Jose: I think the Left has in fact helped in increasing the popularity of the deal by making it the centre of attraction. What do you think?

Diptosh Majumdar: The Indian middle class have reasons to love the deal. After all, look at the polity in India and the US after 1991 when we first opened up our markets. We are both market economies, we are both democracies, we are both facing terror. Obviously, the urban middle class gives a big thumbs up to the US and India coming together. This deal is not about just a deal. It is much more. It changes India's long suspicion of the US. It changes US's long suspicion of India as a pro-Russian power. I view it as a natural progression. It would have happened one day or the other. The Left or the BJP couldn't have gone on postponing it.

Abhishek Banerjee: Is there going to be a break in CPI-M on this issue? Do you think Sitaram Yechury is with the Left decision?

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Diptosh Majumdar: The Left believes in democratic centralism. It doesn't allow open dissent, so we'll never be able to say for sure if Sitaram Yechury had a different take on the subject. The fact remains however of the names we get to hear of those who could have raised their voices against the way in which a section of the CPI(M) leaders went about the deal, there is the name of Yechury. It doesn't mean he's publicly opposing the deal. CPI(M) operates in a different way. We cannot understand its functioning in the way we look at the functioning of other political parties.

L Gurumurthy: Can Congress contest the election on the issue of nuclear deal and win the same?

Diptosh Majumdar: It cannot. The nuclear deal has to be understood in the context of India's status in the world stage and becoming a friend of the US. How you look at that scenario is your personal point of view. I don't find that too impractical a scenario in a unipolar world. Even the Chinese have learnt to do business with the US in a unipolar world. The nuclear deal can never be much of an election issue. The Congress will have to make up a lot of political ground by April next year to think of doing well in the election. Manmohan Singh has definitely won his personal battle and Karat may have lost his personal battle.

Sunny: The Government has finally made the Safeguard Agreement public. The sole bone of contention between the UPA and the Left was the text of the agreement. Why didn't UPA chose to reveal the text earlier?

Diptosh Majumdar: The Government did obfuscate probably to avoid a collision course with the Left. It was definitely not the right way of going about business but then the Government also didn't want to be run down publicly by a virulent Left on the issue before the PM left for the G-8 summit. I am, however, no condoning the government's action. It could have been a little more transparent. But transparency would not have meant the Left would paid any heed to government logic.

Savitri Sundaram: If the UPA manages to pass the floor test do you think it will helping routing the Left in the next elections or the Left will unleash a wave of violence with their traditional base of street goons?

Diptosh Majumdar: I will be very surprised, if the Left gets more than 40 to 42 seats in the next Lok Sabha elections. It was a freak election result in 2004 which helped them win 60 seats.

Rajan: Left parties were enjoying power without accountability. As long as people of India live in abstract poverty and hunger, the Left parties can do successful business in politics through their empty rhetoric. They will have to wind up their shop when India emerges as a super economic power.

Diptosh Majumdar: Left has always loved that scenario. As you so nicely put it, power without accountability. They were so afraid of losing their ideological purity that they never polluted themselves by joining government. I want to ask one question to Left leaders: what is the point of preserving ideological cleanliness when you are never going to handle muck? Running governments at the Centre requires all kinds of bending of rules. You cannot put your ideology above everything else. Then people would be right in suspecting that you have an ideological agenda. You cannot escape criticism that you have an overriding ideological bond with China for which you will look at national interest through your ideological blinkers.

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Sanjoy Goswami: Is the nuclear deal being raked up to divert attention from other bigger issues like terrorism and price rise?

Diptosh Majumdar: The nuclear deal cannot be a political issue. It's too complicated and hardly emotive enough. It doesn't strike a chord like inflation or terror does but there is a sea change in Indian diplomacy because of the deal. As for the Left and the Congress coming together again, I don't think the Left will trust Congress again if Manmohan Singh is in power.

Amit: Even if the deal is operationlised at the earliest, the benefits of the deal will be felt after a good three-four years.

Diptosh Majumdar: True, that's what we are being told but there is one immediate impact. We have already been getting the high seat in the international forums. Now we shall be a nation treated with great respect. What the Indian Left didn't analyse at all was the current global priorities. Even the Chinese are altering the course of their economy and to some extent their politics because they are dealing with market economies the world over. I can understand ideology but that doesn't mean you run away from the discourse. Many would say that the Left doesn't want to confront the reality. I have begun wondering if the Indian Left is escapist in nature.

Dr S S Bakshi: The Left has nauseated most people with their threats. Don’t you think its time we called their bluff and kicked them out of their 60 seats? We are fed up pf the holier than thou pronouncements of their leaders.

Diptosh Majumdar: I wouldn't use such harsh language. The Left anywhere in the world is treated as the nation's conscience. In the market economy, they are the only people who keep reminding us that we can't forget the poor. But letting the Left rule and hold the reins of power is a completely different issue. That can be even disastrous. Look at what has happened to the state of West Bengal in the last thirty one years.

D Mohan: Are the Left MPs and MLAs from Bengal and Kerala united behind Prakash Karat?

Diptosh Majumdar: Let me begin with the most difficult question. There are many people I know who are strong critics of the level of Marxist education among CPI-M functionaries. Few of them are very well informed about their ideology unlike what used to be in the sixties or even the seventies. After being in power in West Bengal for so many years and after the Cold War, the party isn't educating its cadre the way a Pramod Dasgupta would insist upon in the sixties or seventies. So, there are few lively debates within the CPI(M). The CPI-M is a very democratic party and runs on the basis of democratic centralism, but it is a small oligarchy which takes the decisions and few question them. In this case since America is viewed in a particular way by the current decision-makers, it is accepted down the line by most leaders without questioning. After all as far as Communist ideology goes, American is the seat of everything bad about Capitalism and imperialism.