Karnataka Assembly elections were held in a single phase on May 10, with the counting of votes scheduled on May 13. Prime Minister Narendra Modi held massive roadshows on May 6 and 7 as part of his campaign programme in Bengaluru, passing through around 13 Assembly constituencies on the first day. After completing his roadshow in the southern part of the city, PM Modi claimed that he would cherish the affection shown by the people of the city for his entire life.
For Bangalore, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government has worked out diligently on town planning, water supply and decongestion of traffic. The road and railway network in the city has been redrawn to improve the existing infrastructure. Under the Bharatmala Pariyojana, a new umbrella programme for the highways sector that focuses on optimising the efficiency of freight and passenger movement across the country by bridging critical infrastructure gaps through effective interventions like the development of Economic Corridors, Inter Corridors and Feeder Routes, National Corridor Efficiency Improvement, Border and International connectivity roads, Coastal and Port connectivity roads and Green-field expressways, the STRR (Satellite Town Ring Road), which is the Bengaluru Ring Road project, is being developed at the cost of Rs 15,000 crore.
The STRR will play a significant role in removing the ‘choke points’ to decongest the city. The current Union budget has made an allocation of Rs 7,561 crore for the expansion of the railway network in Karnataka along with the Bengaluru suburban railway. The 148 km suburban rail project with four corridors was approved by the Centre in October 2020 for Rs 15,767 crore and is expected to serve around 10 lakh commuters every day and pull a large number of cars out of the road and create economic opportunities.
Narendra Modi: The biggest subliminal catalyst
India’s first-past-the-post electoral system results in highly intense, mathematically driven political strategising. BJP domination in Karnataka has been telling in both the last Parliamentary and Assembly polls in 2019 and 2018-19 respectively. The voting patterns in the general elections of 2019 and the Assembly elections in Karnataka of 2018-19 along with the last three Assembly polls in the three Northeastern states speak the message of the electorate clearly and loudly in favour of one party and one leader.
However, if the people of Karnataka are to go by the exit poll predictions released after the conclusion of voting on Wednesday evening, Karnataka is poised for a hung assembly, with the Congress emerging as the largest party in the Karnataka Assembly elections, closely followed by the ruling BJP.
The BJP’s astounding success in 2014 was primarily due to the fact that it chose Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate, a leader who quickly became so extraordinarily popular that he was able to create an electoral wave that propelled the party further ahead in the 2019 general elections with a record vote share of 37.36 percent of the vote, the highest by a political party since the 1989 general elections, and won 303 seats, further increasing its substantial majority.
Modi is a once-in-a-generation politician and an exceptionally strong campaigner, impromptu with the data and the achievements of his government both at the Centre and the state levels. Modi’s rise to the rank of the most celebrated national leader is a black swan event that does not follow the known trajectories of Indian electoral history.
Second, the BJP managed to win the favour of castes/social groups, ideological adherents, demographic groups, and geographical areas that were not previously solidly BJP voters. The period following 2014, when the BJP came to power, can be considered the beginning of a new single-party system in Indian politics and federal system that replaced the hegemonic “Congress system” that predominated the Indian political scenario since Independence.
Unlike reversal of the voting patterns
Voting patterns were reset in 2014 and 2019 in such a manner that it has a high possibility of being repeated — to a significant extent — in the Karnataka Assembly Elections 2023 and 2024 general elections, wherein the main beneficiary would be the BJP. So far as Karnataka is concerned, it’s one of those states where the BJP’s vote share in the 2019 Parliamentary elections was more than 50 percent. The saffron party took a decisive win over 113 out of 224 Assembly seats, whereas the Congress and the JD(S) won 74 and 27 seats respectively in the Assembly polls of 2018-19. Contrary to the false claims that the party would find it difficult to maintain its cross-caste Hindu coalition due to brewing social friction and inherent contradictions, the BJP successfully increased support among most social groups nationally and in Karnataka. Further, contrary to the political euphoria of the Opposition, the Karnataka Assembly polls are unlikely to throw a completely different verdict.
Double-Engine Government
The BJP retaining power will be historic and understandable keeping in view the benefits of the ‘double-engine’ government Karnataka is reaping, where development is taken not only to the urban population but to the rural interiors. The report card justifies the BJP’s claim of faster growth and development both at the Centre and the state level to the maximum of planning, implementation, service delivery and a transparent good governance model. The federal metaphor of ‘double engine’ has transcended electoral brownie points. The government report card of goals and achievements proves it to be a powerful instrument for the reinvention of India’s cultural plurality, streamlined all-round development, inclusivity of the hitherto neglected under-developed regions and good governance. In the case of BJP-ruled states, successful collaboration with the Centre may have resulted in more effective and coordinated policy implementation and service delivery.
BJP getting politically firmer in Karnataka
The saffron party has a reasonably strong presence in northern Karnataka, which consists of a total of 13 districts and comprises the regions of Kalyan-Karnataka-Kalaburgi and Bombay-Karnataka, accounting for significant Lingayat presence and considerable vote bank and 90 Assembly seats out of the 224 total seats. It has a strong presence in Central regions of the state as well where the politically powerful Lingayat community sustains the party’s growth, and in the coastal region (Karavali) where ideological violence perpetuated by the Popular Front of India (PFI), an Islamic political organisation during 2018-19, has helped the RSS make inroads.
The establishment of a new airport in Shivamogga and a government medical college in Davangere, the grant of Rs 5,300 in the Union budget for the upper Bhadra project, ongoing works on the Tumakuru-Chitradurga-Davangere railway project are expected to pick up high points for the BJP.
Of the 25 segments in Central Karnataka and Malnad regions, BJP holds 20 seats and Congress five. BJP will face a closely contested battle in the Vokkaliga-dominated Old Mysuru region, comprising Mysuru, Kodagu, Mandhya, Hassan, Chamarajanagara, Tumakuru, Chikkaballapura, Kolar and Bengaluru Rural. This area is caste-wise highly polarised between the Ahinda (Dalit, BC and Minorities) versus the Vokkaligas. Modi magic will certainly cut into JD(S) bastion and Congress vote-bank of Mandya, from where PM Modi laid the foundation stone of key development projects like the Bengaluru-Mysuru Expressway along with the Mysuru-Kushalnagar 4-lane highway. To gain more electoral dividends, a concerted campaign with senior party leaders led by PM Modi is making multiple visits for the poll campaign in the Old Mysuru region. While Vokkaligas constitute a steady pro-BJP voter, the Ahindas are expected to vote for the ruling party too, in a situation where the BJP has increased reservation in employment and education for Scheduled Castes from 15 to 17 percent and for Scheduled Tribes from 3 to 7 percent, regularisation of services of 11,133 pourakarmikas.
The Congress’ decimation in the Hindi heartland in the 2014 and 2019 general elections doesn’t give it the legitimacy to call BJP a ‘Hindi Party’ before the 2023 Karnataka Assembly polls. Had it been the case, BJP would not have been on the winning spree in the three Northeastern states in different capacities in 2023, which are far away from the Hindi heartland. It is to be noted that the Congress has not been able to keep Karnataka as its stronghold since 1999.
Karnataka stands out under BJP’s Double Engine
Karnataka GSDP stands at 8.2 percent as per the Economic Survey of Karnataka, 2022-23. And the state has the highest per-capita income of Rs 3.01 lakh which is higher by 77 percent as against the all-India parameter. It ranks third in Sustainable Development Goals with an overall score of 72 out of 100. The Human Development Index of the state showed improvement from 0.432 in 1999 to 0.644 in 2021. It is a leading state in technology and innovation with the first rank in the ‘Innovation Index and State Start-ups’ Ranking. Bengaluru is rightfully called the start-up capital of India as 40 out of 100 unicorns of India are situated there. Karnataka has emerged as an attractive investment hub as a result of Industrial Policy 2020-25. Single window clearance has elevated the state’s ‘Ease of Doing Business’ ranking to the top. Karnataka ranks first in software exports and stands fourth in merchandise exports in India. Thus, Karnataka stands out as a global hub of investment, start-ups, FDI, growth and development.
Not making development an urban target, the BJP has led it to the remote corner along with the poor and the socio-economically marginalised sections. Under MNREGS, 52.71 lakh people from 29.03 lakh families have been provided for during 2022 by creating 13.47 crore man days at a cost of Rs 6,478.76 crore and Rs 4,110 crore of wages were paid directly to labourers. Till December 2022, 13.35 lakh functional household tap connections have been provided at the cost of Rs 2,314.34 crore. Rs 15,066 crore has been lent to 20.19 lakh farmers in 2022-2023 and Rs 483.62 crore has been disbursed to farmers’ children under the Raita Vidya Nidhi scheme that has now been extended to other categories as well. Under the new Yeshasvini health scheme, 32.32 lakh members have been registered till January 17, 2023. In the housing sector, 1.57 lakh homes under various schemes have been built at a cost of Rs 2,098 crore. Hakku Patra will be given to 3.36 lakh families living in government-owned slums, of which 1.14 lakh families have already received the same. The maternal mortality rate in the state has reduced from 83 to 69, Namma Clinics, which are women’s wellness clinics and polyclinics, are in the process of being launched. Around 100 primary health centres are being upgraded into 30-bed model community health centres at a cost of Rs 1,000 crore.
Of the Central flagship programmes like Ayushman Bharat, over 30 lakh poor citizens got the benefit of this scheme in Karnataka saving Rs 4,000 crore in their treatment costs. Under PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi, 11 crore farmers in the country received direct transfers amounting to over Rs 2 lakh crore till now. Of this, around 60 lakh farmers in Karnataka got around Rs 12,000 crore and more than 2.75 lakh farmers belonging to the Mandya region were provided Rs 600 crore by the Central government. While the Central pool sends Rs 6,000 for each beneficiary under the PM Kisan amman Nidhi, the Karnataka government adds another Rs 4000 to it. Under the Jal Jeewan Mission, water connections were provided to over six crore households across India. Of this, around 40 lakh rural households in Karnataka have got piped water connections under the Jal Jeevan Mission.
The Union government has announced Rs 5300 crore for the upper Bhadra Lift project. Besides this, there will be a permanent solution to the problems related to irrigation in a large part of Karnataka for the Kharif season. It is planned to irrigate an extent of up to 225515 hectares by micro irrigation in drought-prone districts of Chikkamagalur and Chiitradurga, Tumkur and Devanagare. It envisages lifting up to 17.40 TMC of water in the first stage from the river Tunga to the existing Bhadra reservoir to the tunnel near Ajjampura in the Tunga Bhadra sub-basin of Krishna reservoir. The Karnataka Cabinet in December 2022 approved 13 irrigation projects like the Melligeri-Halgali Lift Irrigation scheme, and Ammajeshwari Lift Irrigation scheme, costing Rs 5,701.38 crore in the Bombay Karnataka region (North Karnataka) comprising Belagavi, Dharwad, Vijayapura, Bagalkot, Gagad, Uttara Kannada, and Haveri districts. Kisan credit cards are being given to fishermen in the state. The government is also working on providing better boats and technology to fishermen to increase their incomes.
The BJP’s claim and electoral contestation over Karnataka stands legitimate viewing the overarching plan of development, inclusion and service delivery. The choices are wide for the electorate but a conscientious decision calls for the re-election of none other than the BJP.
The author is a senior faculty in the Department of History, ARSD College, University of Delhi. Views expressed are personal.
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