The elections to the Tamil Nadu Assembly on April 6 may not have the familiar fire and fury of the times of the two giants on the Dravidian political turf, the AIADMK ‘Amma’ J Jayalalithaa and the DMK ‘Thalaivar’ M Karunanidhi, slugging it out. Yet, it promises to be just as exciting, as their successors too are pulling no punches to propel this as one of the fiercely fought poll battles ever.
For Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, aka EPS, victory would mean not just the return to rule from the Fort St. George, but also the sole proprietorship of the AIADMK leadership and Amma’s legacy. He could breathe easier and sleep better, and at least flush away fears of any coup by the once-sulking deputy CM, O Panneerselvam, aka OPS. Of course, there would still be some devils in the shadows, but they might take a long time and huge effort to step out to challenge the victor as he consolidates his hold on the party and the government that he managed to steer so assiduously post-Jayalalithaa.
EPS was the darkest of horses in Jayalalithaa’s ministry when her live-in friend, VK Sasikala, whom the late leader used to fondly refer to as her udanpiravaa sagodari (sister not related through blood), took quick control of the party after the charismatic AIADMK chief’s death (December 5, 2016), and chose EPS since her own hard attempts to climb the throne were checkmated by the Supreme Court, which convicted her in a Disproportionate Assets Case. Memes flooded the social media for long with videos showing him falling at Sasikala’s feet after she made that pronouncement at an AIADMK legislature party meeting (February 14, 2017). Critics poked fun, saying he had to dive and crawl some distance to get past his seniors to reach her. But the man lost little time consolidating himself, wooed rival OPS to return home, got Sasikala and clan expelled from the party and ‘bought’ peace with senior colleagues. Of course, the BJP and its regime helped.
But now, EPS must prove himself as a leader in his own right and not a fluke foisted upon the post-Jaya dispensation. Winning the April poll would ensure there’s no further challenge to his claim to the ownership of the MGR-Jaya legacy. Defeat could spell doom; not just for himself but also for the party itself, as such a quake could crack it open for smooth swallowing by stalking predators. Even ‘friend’ BJP could then turn a ‘beneficiary’.
Insiders say the BJP top brass first tried convincing EPS and his party convener OPS that it would be best to hold hands, even if not embrace in merger, with the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK) — the party of Sasikala’s nephew TTV Dhinakaran — after her release from jail (she came out of the Parappana Agrahara prison in Bengaluru on January 27). It appears that the central intelligence agencies had reported that Sasikala’s alienation could cost dearly in 60-70 constituencies down south and that her Thevar community, identified as an AIADMK vote back from the MGR days, would turn against the EPS bid for a second term. Chinnamma (junior amma, as Sasikala is known in the party circles) and Dhinakaran, who is the AMMK general secretary, have branded EPS as a drogi, meaning traitor, accusing him of backstabbing her after getting the CM post out of her ‘compassion’. We will discuss all this later in this poll-scape series, but suffice to say here that the Chief Minister stood his ground that it would be disastrous taking her back.
EPS managed to convince the BJP leadership, which the rival DMK-Congress camp says has been virtually running his party and the government by remote control, that he would win the election minus the AMMK, as his government did well in vital areas of electorate reckoning, such as development, social welfare, health, education, and of course, managing the Covid-19 crisis. Besides, he made three important announcements just recently to hugely ingratiate some influential segments in the 6.13 crore voter population — 10.5% exclusive share for the Vanniyars in the MBC quota, waiver of farm loans of over Rs 12,000 crore, and bringing seven of the Scheduled Caste (SC) communities under the category of ‘Devendra Kula Vellalars’. The first gift would please the Vanniyar community, which is strong in the northern districts; the second takes care of the farmer’s vote in the delta districts (central Tamil Nadu); and the third one addresses the long-standing demand of the SCs.
In short, EPS had his way with the saffron bosses and even got them to have Sasikala to issue a statement (on March 3) announcing she was quitting politics. This would ensure to a large extent that her Thevar votes will not get blown away from the AIADMK. Not just that: her statement went even further in making a veiled appeal to the voters to support EPS, albeit without mentioning his name. “I pray to my sister (Jaya) and god for establishing a good governance…the true followers of Amma should strive to fight against the evil DMK and work hard to establish Amma’s government.”
And so, if Sasikala’s statement works the way the EPS-OPS-BJP calculations hope for, it would be the fourth big factor in their favour; besides, the ruling party insists there is no anti-incumbency factor and there is a public perception that EPS is a commoner’s CM. More about this later.
While the AIADMK-led alliance has had a fairly smooth ride in its seat-sharing talks, thanks mostly to the BJP’s ‘persuasive’ skills, it’s been a rather turbulent sailing on the rival DMK front with reports popping out that the DMK and its long-time ally, the Congress, were readying for divorce. Ultimately, an SOS call from friend Rahul Gandhi got MK Stalin to agree on Saturday (March 6) to part with 25 seats, after having started the negotiations with a measly 12 seats. Till the other day, the DMK president took pride in recalling it was he who had first proposed Rahul as the UPA’s PM candidate; but now even the man on the street knows that the Congress, with more leaders than cadres in Tamil Nadu, has long lost its sheen.
“It looked easy for the DMK some months back, but now it is getting to be a close fight,” said a party senior, expressing anguish that the public perception, which is very important at poll time, is gradually shifting from ‘confidence’ to ‘doubt’ over the DMK victory. Which is why, perhaps, the party’s latest campaign slogan proclaims, “Stalin thaan varaaru, vidiyal thara poraaru (Stalin is sure to win and herald a new dawn)”. The stress is on ‘thaan’ and that means ‘only’. The next few weeks, as the allies divide the constituencies and announce candidates before their leaders hit the hot turf with poll manifestos, will show if the DMK, whose symbol is the Rising Sun, is delivering that promised dawn.
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