Bangalore: Who gets the mandate to rule Karnataka for the next five years will be decided on May 8 when the counting for the 224-member Assembly takes place for which voting will take place in a single phase on May 5. In 2008 the BJP won the polls and got the chance to rule a state south of the Vindhyas for the first time in its history. But the mandate was soon squandered as the ruling party was beset with charges of massive corruption and nepotism forcing it to change its chief minister thrice.
BJP Chief Minister Jagadish Shettar faces a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. Massive undercurrents of corruption, disunity, the lack of a unified leadership and the ambiguity over Lingayat votes are other factors that will challenge the re-election of the BJP in the state. The party held a 34 per cent vote share in the 2008 Assembly polls and 41 per cent in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
The Congress has its own set of problems including too many leaders, disunity, excessive reliance on factions and caste, along with the fact that they have been out of power for 7 years in Karnataka. The party held 36 per cent vote share in the 2008 Assembly polls and 37 per cent in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections.
Janata Dal (Secular) is a family party with literally no presence in 60 per cent of the state. The party has been on the decline and people's distrust won it just 19 per cent vote share in 2008 assembly polls which plunged to 13 per cent in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.
BS Yeddyurappa, who led the BJP charge in 2008, was forced to resign following charges of corruption and soon fell out of favour of the party top leadership forcing him to quit the party. His Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) is a relatively new party which is solely dependent on Lingayat support. The shadows of corruption might also spoil Yeddyurappa's chances in the May 5 polls.
Other parties like the CPI, CPM, SP, BSP and BSR Congress have no strong base and might be looking at a 1-2 seat win only. The collective vote share of these other parties was 12 per cent in the 2008 assembly polls and 8 per cent in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls.
The state of Karnataka has been unforgiving to ruling parties and hasn't voted any one of them back to power since 1989. In 1989, Janata Dal led by Ramakrishna Hegde suffered a humiliating defeat to the Congress, which was voted back into power after 7 years with 75 per cent seats. In 1994, M Veerappa Moily-led Congress also lost power and was pushed to the third place with just 36 seats. HD Deve Gowda-led Janata Dal came to power.
But Janata Dal's luck ran out in 1999 too when they were voted out by SM Krishna-led Congress again. In 2004, the Congress lost as well after a badly fractured mandate. N Dharam Singh of the Congress formed a coalition government with JD(S) support. The alliance collapsed in 2006 when the 20-20 alliance formed by the JD(S) and BJP was voted into power. Soon thereafter, the doomed alliance collapsed from power as well and President's rule was imposed in the state. In 2008, BS Yeddyurappa-led BJP was voted into power riding on a sympathy wave. When he was forced to resign, Sadanand Gowda took over. But after Yeddyurappa led a rebellion against Gowda, the BJP was forced to name Jagadish Shettar as the Chief Minister.
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