Kalaburagi Lok Sabha Seat: With No Kharge This Time, Can BJP MP Jadhav Surmount Anti-incumbency Challenge?

The Kalaburagi Lok Sabha constituency in Karnataka is made up of eight assembly segments: Afzalpur, Jewargi, Gurmitkal, Chittapur (SC), Sedam, Gulbarga Rural (SC), Gulbarga Dakshin, and Gulbarga Uttar. It is a Scheduled Caste category parliamentary seat.

It was seen as a bastion of the Congress for years, but after the party’s veteran leader M Mallikarjun Kharge lost the 2019 Lok Sabha election from this seat, the political arithmetic changed. This time Kalaburagi, or Gulbarga, is again under the spotlight because it is not Congress president Kharge but his son-in-law Radhakrishna Doddamani in the fray. He will be taking on Bharatiya Janata Party’s incumbent MP Umesh G Jadhav.

Polling will take place here on May 7, in the third phase of the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.

Voting factors

1. The Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress are the primary parties in this constituency. Other potential contenders include Janata Dal (Secular), Aam Aadmi Party, and Bahujan Samaj Party, but their presence is marginal.
2. The Kalaburagi seat has been a stronghold of the Congress for many years, with the party winning 14 out of 17 elections since its establishment. This dominance can be attributed to several factors, including the party’s strong organisational presence at the grassroots level and its ability to effectively mobilise its core support base, particularly among rural communities.
3. Moreover, this is also the home constituency of Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge though his son-in-law Radhakrishna Doddamani is the candidate this time.
4. Umesh G Jadhav of the BJP is the current Member of Parliament and has been fielded again. In recent years, the Congress has faced increasing challenges from the BJP for the seat. The BJP made significant inroads winning in 1998 and 2019. This shift suggests the electorate is becoming more open to new political options. The Congress can no longer take its traditional support base for granted.
5. The quality of individual candidates and their ability to connect with voters can impact electoral outcomes. In 2019, Umesh Jadhav defeated Mallikarjun Kharge. However, since then the scenario has changed with Kharge being elected the Congress president and him not being in the fray.
6. Ground reports indicate that there is significantly high anti-incumbency against Jadhav now as he has failed to deliver on some promises. Inputs suggested that if Kharge himself contested again, Jadhav would have had a tough time. However, now he might have a fighting chance, say observers.
7. At present Kalaburagi district is dominated by the Kharge and Jadhav families. No other leaders are likely to shape the political landscape in the near future.
8. Caste and community dynamics play a significant role in Gulbarga. The constituency has a large Scheduled Caste (SC) population, which has traditionally been a key support base for the Congress. However, the BJP has made efforts to woo SC voters in recent elections.
9. Politics between upper castes and Dalits is certainly shaping the political scenario. The Koli Samaj (a Dalit community) has a 15% vote share, which constitutes 3 lakh voters. Their demands of being included in the Schedules Tribe list have not borne fruit yet.
10. The constituency harbours a significant Muslim population, which could sway votes in favour of the Congress. The Ladle Dargah and Kote Shivalinga are central to a longstanding communal issue in Kalaburagi. It has been marked by repeated clashes. Incidents include a 2019 flag removal dispute and a 2022 stone-pelting on a religious procession led by union minister Bhagwanth Khuba. Tensions revolve around religious ritual rights at these sites, with several cases filed. Considering this situation, issues like the Ayodhya Ram Mandir consecration and the Gyanvapi mosque dispute have some resonance among voters.

Voter demographics

• Population: 1,945,291 (as of 2019 Lok Sabha election)
• Rural: 1,250,822 voters (64.3%)
• Urban: 694,469 voters (35.7%)
• Scheduled Castes (SCs): 466,870 voters (24%)
• Scheduled Tribes (STs): 58,359 voters (3%)
• Hindu: 76.97%
• Muslim: 22.3%

Key constituency issues

1. Kalaburagi district is predominantly agrarian apart from a handful of cement industries. The district is trailing in industrialisation. Despite having a lot of land for cultivation, Kalaburagi has a high poverty level.
2. According to ground reports, low agricultural productivity has been due to incidents of drought, poor soil quality and lack of irrigation. Farmers are heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture, which is vulnerable to climate change.
3. Farmers are also suffering from a lack of access to credit and other financial services. Infrastructure such as transportation and storage facilities for produce is another issue, as well as exploitation by middlemen and moneylenders.
4. The migration of people from rural to urban areas in search of better economic opportunities is a common phenomenon in Kalaburagi due to a lack of employment opportunities in rural areas. Migration and the consequent loss of population and skilled workers is a key issue for voters.
5. Kalaburagi is located in a drought-prone region of India. Droughts are a common occurrence in the region, and they can have a devastating impact on the local economy and population. According to reports, As many as 315 villages in drought-affected Kalaburagi district are likely to face drinking water scarcity during the peak of summer. Farmers have been demanding that Kalaburagi be declared a drought-hit area.
6. Kalaburagi is not economically progressive and contributes just 2.3% of the state GDP. The top products in the district are cement, toor dal, and footwear. There is a food park in Jewargi, and eight major cement companies have their factories in the district. But apart from this, job opportunities are limited.
7. National factors and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity will also likely influence voting outcome in the Lok Sabha elections here. The Congress can also bank on the Kharge factor and Rahul Gandhi also remains a popular leader.
8. Rahul had in fact promised Rs 1 crore for each panchayat and a Rs 5,000-crore package for the Kalyana Karnataka region (which includes Kalaburagi) during the last assembly elections. This has now been moved in the state assembly by chief minister Siddaramaiah. This could have an impact on the electorate.
9. The implementation of five guarantee schemes by the state government is also expected to have a significant impact on Kalaburagi voters, especially among women.

Infrastructure development

Kalaburagi airport: Gulbarga airport was to have started operations in the latter half of 2012 but was delayed due to financial disputes. The erstwhile BS Yediyurappa government is credited with the inauguration of the Gulbarga airport in 2019. The operational airport has been able to improve connectivity and boost tourism in the region. However, the number of flights operating from the airport is very few.

Irrigation projects: Several irrigation projects have been undertaken in Kalaburagi including the Upper Krishna Project and the Bhima Lift Irrigation Project. These projects have increased the availability of water for agriculture, which has led to increased crop yields and improved incomes for farmers.

National Highway 150: The central government has constructed a new National Highway (NH 150) that connects Kalaburagi to other major cities in the region. This has improved transportation and trade.

Railway line: The Centre has also constructed a new railway line that connects Kalaburagi to Bidar and other parts of the country.

Solar power plant: GKC-Gulbarga Solar PV Park is a 10MW solar PV power project that has helped reduce the constituency’s reliance on fossil fuels for power generation. An additional 500MW park is also reportedly being planned by Indian Oil Corporation Ltd and National Thermal Power Corporation. With Karnataka facing a 1,500MW power deficit, Kalaburagi has the potential to emerge as a large-scale power producer.

Textile park: According to ground reports, a mega textile park is to come up in the district which is expected to create jobs for 1.5-2 lakh people. But work on this has not yet started. This project is seen as a major potential boost to the local economy, and its delay is a source of frustration for many people in Kalaburagi.

Check Lok Sabha Election 2024 Phase 3 Schedule, Key Candidates And Constituencies At News18 Website.