In the fourth round of Lok Sabha elections in Bihar, the seven seats where voters will exercise their franchise are in the Mithilanchal and Kosi belt of the state. This is an area that faces massive floods in the monsoon season due to the presence of a large number of rivers.
This round is extremely crucial for Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar as not only the JDU President Sharad Yadav is in the fray from Madhepura once again but out of the seven seats, the party won five in 2009 while its former ally the Bharatiya Janata Party had bagged the other two.
But with the JDU-BJP alliance over and a strong Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress-National Congress Party alliance making a comeback, the dynamics have changed drastically. Buoyed by large number of people at his rallies, RJD supremo Lalu Prasad, too, expects a good show while the Bharatiya Janata Party is banking on his development agenda and the Narendra Modi wave which has seen the consolidation of forward castes in its favour.
The JDU-BJP combine's sweep in Bihar was helped by a weak opposition which is not the case this time. Several sitting MPs in this round are very unpopular among the voters due to their inaccessibility. Intra-party bickering is also making it tough for them. Combined with the complex caste calculations and the presence of a sizeable Muslim population, the parties and their leaders are having sleepless nights.
Out of the seven constituencies Madhubani, Jhanjharpur, Madhepura, Darbhanga, Begusarai and Khagaria are general seats while Samastipur is reserved for the Scheduled Caste. There are a total of 1,10,42,043 voters out of whom males are 58,45,522 and females 51,96,236 while 285 belong to the other category. They will decide the fate of 94 candidates including 5 women. There are 10,157 polling stations with 10,157 control units and 11,643 ballot units.
To ensure security along the border areas with Nepal, special drives have been launched and patrolling intensified. A total of 59,000 security personnel which includes 149 companies of central paramilitary forces, 74 companies of Bihar Military Police, 27,000 personnel of district armed police and 8,966 home guards will be deployed. Two helicopters are also being used for surveillance. Seven companies of mounted military police have also been deployed along the riverine (diara) areas.
The seats going to polls:
Madhepura:
This seat has seen Nitish Kumar camping for 10 days to bolster the chances of Sharad Yadav who is facing a strong RJD candidate in Rajesh Ranjan alias Pappu Yadav. Before the delimitation of 2009, the Yadav community was numerically the largest in Madhepura so much so that it was said: "Rome Pope ka, Madhepura Gope ka" (Rome is for the Pope, Madhepura is for Yadavs).
But after 2009 the caste equations have changed even though Yadavs can still make or mar the prospects of the candidates.
Madhepura has become a prestige issue not only for the Bihar Chief Minister but also for his bitter rival and RJD chief Lalu Prasad as he too has gone all out to ensure Pappu Yadav's victory. Sharad Yadav had defeated RJD's Ravindra Charan Yadav by a handsome margin of 1,77,621 votes in 2009 but this time he does not have the cushion of BJP voters.
There are a total of 12 candidates in the fray with BJP putting up Vijay Kumar Singh, a Kushwaha, who is the husband of JDU MLA Renu Kushwaha. JDU has already expelled Renu Kushwaha for campaigning for her husband.
BJP's calculation is that Yadav and Muslim votes would split between Pappu Yadav and Sharad Yadav while Dalits and ECBs along with the forward castes would back Kushwaha ensuring his win.
In fact the fight is so close that Sharad Yadav went to seek the blessings of criminal-turned-politician Anand Mohan's mother Geeta Devi at her native village. Even though Anand Mohan is serving a life term for the murder of Gopalganj DM G Krishnaiah, he wields a massive following among the Rajputs.
Pappu Yadav's Achilles heel is his image of a strongman although the RJD has been pointing out that he has been acquitted in the 1998 murder case of Communist Party of India (Marxist) leader Ajit Sarkar.
Darbhanga: With several Muslim youngsters arrested on terror charges and security agencies regularly pointing to a Darbhanga module of terrorists, the polarisation is very pronounced in the seat which has almost 30 per cent minority community voters.
Sitting BJP MP Kirti Jha Azad is facing a tough contest with the RJD keen to avenge the defeat of its candidate Mohammad Ali Ashraf Fatmi in the 2009 election by 46,453 votes. With Congress on its side and Azad not being very popular in the area, the RJD is confident of turning the tables on the BJP.
Fatmi has represented Darbhanga four times in the Lok Sabha while Azad, an ODI World Cup winning cricketer and son of former Bihar Chief Minister Bhagwat Jha Azad, has won twice.
But with JDU putting up Sanjay Kumar Jha, a close confidant of Nitish Kumar and a candidate who is considered to be close to the electorate, the contest has become triangular. Jha is banking on Nitish Kumar's development plank, his own image as a leader who has always been available in Darbhanga and the support of Mahadalits, ECBs, MCBs and Muslims to see him through.
There are a total of 15 candidates in the fray.
Madhubani: This land is famous for its paintings which have carved their niche far and wide. RJD's Abdul Bari Siddiqui had narrowly lost to BJP leader Hukum Dev Narayan Yadav by just 9,927 votes in 2009 but this time he is confident of emerging as the victorious candidate. While Siddiqui is likely to get the Muslim votes, even the JDU candidate Ghulam Gaus, who ditched the RJD just before elections, is also likely to get a sizable chunk of minority votes.
While 11 candidates are in the fray, it seems to be a triangular contest even though the CPI (ML) has its pockets of influence and its candidate Dhruv Narayan Karn is expected to pocket some votes upsetting the calculations of others.
Hukum Dev Narayan Yadav is not very popular but the Narendra Modi factor may work in his favour. He is also hoping to split RJD vote bank and get Yadav votes. But Lalu has campaigned very hard to ensure that there is no split.
Jhanjharpur: This seat is witnessing an interesting battle as all the three major parties have fielded defectors. Sitting MP Mangani Lal Mandal, who won in 2009 on a JDU ticket, is now a RJD candidate. He faces an old warhorse Devendra Prasad Yadav of the JDU, who merged his Samajwadi Janata Dal (Democratic) with the party in early March.
Yadav was the RJD MP in the 14th Lok Sabha from Jhanjharpur but left it after differences with Lalu Prasad to form the SJD (Democratic) in 2010. He has won five Lok Sabha elections from the seat. His clean image and socialist background are his strengths.
BJP has named Virendra Kumar Chaudhary, who left the JDU after he failed to get a ticket, as it candidate and he seems to have gained a lot as campaigning progressed.
Another prominent candidate is Aam Aadmi Party's Tiliya Devi, who was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. But she is unlikely to have much impact on the result.
While the area has seen some development in the last decade, residents still prefer to go by the caste of the candidates. This is one of the few seats in the state where Muslims seems to prefer the JDU more than the RJD which could prove to be clincher when EVMs are opened on May 16.
Samastipur (SC): Out of the 10 Assembly seats, the JDU holds six while one BJP MLA has openly backed Nitish Kumar. JDU has once again placed its bets on sitting MP Maheshwar Hazari who defeated LJP's Ramchandra Paswan by 1,04,376 in 2009.
But in 2009 JDU was with BJP and now it is the turn of the LJP to stand with the saffron party. So the equations have changed even as Congress candidate Ashok Kumar is also in the race backed by RJD. The other nine candidates are just to make up the numbers.
Begusarai: Known as the Leningrad of Bihar for a strong presence of the communists, BJP's Nawada MP Bhola Prasad Singh is now contesting from this seat which led to a lot of heartburn in his party as another leader Giriraj Singh wanted to try his luck from here. After a lot of tantrum Giriraj Singh finally settled for Nawada.
But the differences are out in the open and BJP's rivals are trying their best to exploit them.
While RJD has named Mohammad Tanveer Hasan, JDU ally Communist Party of India candidate Rajendra Prasad Singh is hoping to win a seat for a Left party in the state after four Lok Sabha elections.
Bhola Prasad Singh has been an Independent MLA, then joined the CPI, later was in the Congress, then was in the then Janata Dal with Lalu Prasad and now finally he is with the BJP for the last two decades.
In 2009 JDU's Monazir Hassan had defeated CPI Shatrughna Prasad Singh by 40,837. Hassan is not contesting this time but the JDU has fielding his wife Shabnam Parveen for Sahebpur Kamal Assembly by-election.
Khagaria:
The seat is held by the JDU which has repeated its sitting MP Dinesh Chandra Yadav, who had defeated RJD's Ravinder Kumar Rana by a huge margin of 1,38,755 votes in 2009. But the land-locked constituency surrounded by seven rivers which not only make the region extremely fertile but are also a cause of devastating floods every year is witnessing an interesting contest this time.
RJD has fielded Krishna Kumari Yadav, the second wife of criminal-turned-politician Ranvir Yadav who was once very close Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. Krishna's elder sister Poonam is also married to Ranvir and is a JDU MLA. But she has been expelled by the JDU for campaigning for her sister after Nitish Kumar did not accede to her request to make Krishna the party candidate.
BJP's ally LJP is contesting the seat and has named Choudhary Mehboob Ali Kaiser, who left the Congress and joined the party a few weeks back. There are a total of 13 candidates in the fray.
Being an area that is highly flood prone, the main issue is connectivity to other parts of the state. The constituency has neither a good rail link nor a proper road link and during the monsoon and a couple of months after the area is virtually cut off from the rest of the state.
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