Chennai: Tamil Nadu had its last congress government under M. Bhaktavatsalam from 1963-67, after which the Dravidian movement of E.V. Ramasami Naicker ('Periyar') and C.N. Annadurai swept Tamil Nadu into a strong regional powerhouse.
Successive Governments of Dravida Munetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the breakaway group All-India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) later ensured congress never saw power for nearly 50 years. After M.G. Ramachandran (MGR) and M. Karunanidhi had difference of opinion, the friends-turned-foes broke off and MGR started his own political party. It did not take long for his filmdom heroine Jayalalithaa to join his party and after MGR's demise, though she was in the wilderness for a while, established herself as the lone leader of AIADMK.
Tamil Nadu has voted for these two regional parties alternately giving each a chance to govern the state almost unchallenged ignoring congress altogether.
Congress was in its peak when Kamaraj Nadar ruled the state before he moved to the center as congress president and helped Prime Minister Nehru with his, 'Kamaraj Plan' to ease out powerful ministers at the centre who were looking for their own chance to lead after Nehru era.
It was Kamaraj who cleverly authored the plan and made sure all the ministers gave up their plum posts for 'party work', an euphemism to clear the deadwood. Subsequently, Indira Gandhi entered the cabinet as a minister later became congress president and perhaps the first move for the seeds of dynasty was sown.
It was only a matter of time before Indira took over the reins after infighting for power in which she clearly outmaneuvered her superior opponents, called the 'Syndicate' which ironically included Kamaraj Nadar himself.
The last Congress government was led by Bhakthavatsalam. After that the Dravidian movement ensured no congress government ever came to power in Tamil Nadu. Now it is almost a headless chicken not knowing where it is heading.
Prime Minister Narasimha Rao who shrewdly brought financial reforms that galvanized India also showed political cunningness to rope in charismatic and hugely popular actor Rajinikanth to lead congress in the state in the 1966 elections. The bus conductor-turned- actor, an outsider to State, was neither a Tamilian nor a politician.
Rao thought Rajini's phenomenal fan- following would dent both DMK and AIADMK sufficiently and pave way for Congress to come to power. But somewhere things went wrong and the enigmatic actor went away to Himalayas, as he often does, vowing never to enter politics again. Both the Regional parties must have heaved a huge sigh of relief at this unexpected development.
Corruption charges dogged both the parties during their rule. DMK has had to face huge charges of corruption against their ministers under Manmohan Singh's coalition government at the Centre.
Minister for Communications and Information Technology A. Raja, Member of Parliament in the Rajya Sabha and daughter of Karunanidhi, Kanimozhi and even Rajathi Ammal, Karunanidhi's wife herself were involved in corruption charges in 2G scam.
Both Raja and Kanimozhi served prison sentence before they were released on bail. The CBI has filed case against Karunanidhi's nephew and Minister for Communications and Information Technology (2004-2007) at Center, Dayanidhi Maran accusing him of corruption to the extent of Rs. 750 crores.
Thus the DMK family is mired in corruption charges and it will take some time before they can return to power in Tamil Nadu.
On the other hand, the decade and half cases seem to have caught up with Chief Minister Jayalalithaa. Although she was acquitted in a few cases, she was charged and convicted by a Court in Karnataka in the Disproportionate Assets case and given a sentence of 4 years and a penalty of mind-boggling fine of Rs. 100 crores.
Jayalalithaa herself had requested to have the case transferred to Karnataka as she feared she might not get full justice if the case was tried in Tamil Nadu. As it turned out she was found guilty by special court Judge John Michael D'Cunnah and his pronouncement, though very much welcome in fight against corruption, has stunned the nation and sent shivers down the spine of many a politician involved in corruption.
DMK and AIADMK facing either corruption charges, battling courts and inevitable time to be spent in jail if convicted, this is the best opportunity for other parties to make their presence felt.
Jayalalitha is also debarred from contesting any election for 10 years. Without any other leader to take her place, AIADMK's chances at elections are close to zero. DMK is not in a great position, mired as they are in corruption charges.
Other smaller parties in Tamil Nadu are too small and insignificant to come to power. They have survived being part of a coalition with the two major parties in the State.
This is the right time for Congress and BJP to gain a foothold in the political affairs of the State. Congress thus far has been reduced to a nonentity and whether they are in a position to use the golden opportunity after being out of power for nearly half a century remains to be seen. The Congress is in total shambles at national level with competence of its own leaders under question. After the huge loss in the general election, the party is almost reduced to a regional party making it difficult for Congress to fill the power vacuum in TN.
On the other hand, it is great opportunity for BJP to make its presence here after winning so handsomely at the center. BJP which is a cadre based party should try to build a strong party to spread its tentacles here. It had a chance when it captured the state of Karnataka few years back. But corruption charges against the Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa, his sons and some of his colleagues brought down the BJP government and ensured the return of Congress in the State after S.M. Krishna government.
There is a state of flux in Tamil Nadu and a great opportunity exists for the two national parties to make it count. In a State where film and politics go hand in hand whether a film star will make a dramatic entry into election cauldron remains to be seen. Will any party show political acumen, makes deft moves to capture power is something we will know soon. Although it is quite some distance from an election here, the early bird catches the worm.
It is quite possible winds of change finally will sweep Tamil Nadu.
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