The USA-led world order is in absolute shambles. Its priorities, over-burdened by the weight of the Cold War, are botched up, to say the least. With an undue focus on Russia, the White House has directed all its energies, and leveraged all its alliances, towards reorienting European energy security and forcing the Kremlin to bow down which it is not planning to do.
Here’s where the problem lies with the USA’s foreign policy throwback to the 1960s when the Cold War with Russia was at its peak. It’s 2022, and what Putin wants is reunification with certain ex-Soviet countries, reclaim Russia’s sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and protect its gas supply hegemony in Europe. However, beyond this, Russia is no longer in a position to challenge the US-led world order. Its economy is 14 times smaller than the USA’s, its currency is almost 80 times weaker than the dollar and its population is under a rapid decline. Instead, it is China that is the real threat to the US and its allies, and Beijing has also been quite clear about uprooting the US-led order and replacing the US as the world’s most powerful nation, both militarily and economically. It would also be happy to become Moscow’s full-time banker to further its global financial dominance. Despite this, Biden’s primary focus has been Russia, and has used his Eastern European host in Kyiv to the fullest.
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Why the US has been able to keep a tight grip on Ukraine is because the Zelensky-led regime in Kyiv has been recklessly welcoming perhaps to achieve the dreams sold to it— Dreams of being admitted into the NATO and the European Union. Zelensky has helped the US make inroads into the Black Sea and provoke Putin in his backyard. Zelensky has allowed Ukraine to become a radically anti-Russia military front remote-controlled by the USA. At the cost of turning Ukraine into a full-fledged American satellite state, Kyiv may have expected that its interests would indeed be covered, but every step of the way, chances are little that Ukraine would make the cut for its Western allies before being swallowed whole by Russia, which has already started a military invasion and asked Ukraine to lay down its arms.
So, Ukraine has become a casualty of the USA’s geopolitical ambitions and its appetite to fight battles that do not concern China, but only make it stronger and more steadfast in its goals without attracting attention. Not only has the Russia-China axis become unusually strong, but Taiwan too could be under threat of an invasion that Beijing spent the last few years talking about. Such is the fate of American allies that bet entirely on the USA and by extension, Europe. If Biden did not want to repeat the failure to protect American allies during the Afghanistan withdrawal, he is certainly failing, having picked the wrong battles and provoked the wrong enemies.
This is why India keeping its hands off the Ukraine crisis makes sense even as Russia stepped up its military buildup at the border, or when it declared Donetsk and Luhansk as independent republics. India has abstained from voting against Russia at the UNSC twice, and its UNSC statements have called for mutual restraint without naming or condemning its old friend Russia. But this has irked Western analysts, who contend that India’s position is problematic, unprincipled and disloyal towards the United States and Europe.
The premise of this argument is flawed, to say the least. It comes from a position of ignorance, condescension and a complete nescience of history. To unequivocally support the USA in its endeavours, India needs to trust the White House, no matter who is President. That unfortunately has not been achieved yet. The Biden administration’s tacit reversal of Donald Trump’s many foreign policy shifts including those that benefited India has hurt the trust factor and made India fall back to a more aggressively practical approach stressing on ‘strategic autonomy’.
For example, China’s military buildup at the Himalayan border with India is bigger than the Russian buildup seen at the Ukrainian border, and yet the Biden Administration has only softened its tone against China and refrains from describing China as an aggressor against India, forget sincerely vowing to support India in the event of a war. Taiwan has been facing constant cyberattacks and threats from China of a full-blown invasion, and yet the Biden Administration has played hot and cold towards the island nation, sending signals to China about its insincerity. In Afghanistan, USA’s allies suffered the most, be it the Afghans who worked with the Americans or the countries that invested billions in the US-backed civilian regime in Kabul. India was one of them. The winners were the Taliban and their backers in Pakistan who overtly threw the Americans out and launched a revenge campaign against its allies. In fact, Pakistan, for all its crimes, did not face any sanctions, despite directly besieging American interests or those of its allies.
And this is where the root of the problem lies. India has watched over the decades how despite pumping terrorists into Indian soil, effecting devastating terror attacks in India and threatening India with a two-front war with China on its side, Pakistan has enjoyed the designation of ‘major non-NATO ally’ of the United States, received billions in ‘aid’ and gotten away with its actions scot-free. Pakistan has also tried to leverage its nukes against India while protecting terror groups based on its soil. In 1998, the US imposed sanctions on India after the Pokhran nuclear tests. No matter how ineffective the sanctions proved to be on India’s growing economy, they did leave a mark on India-US relations, as did decades of American military and financial support to Pakistan. In fact, in any of Pakistan’s wars with India, the USA did not take the right side. Till today, the US has failed to completely decouple from its old ally Pakistan— how is that any better than India maintaining ties with Russia? To add to that, Russia has never directly attacked Indian interests, whereas Pakistan did so numerous times to the Americans in Afghanistan. So, if the US is looking to protect its perceived self-interests every step of the way, so shall India, whose ties with Russia cannot be dumped in one fell swoop.
Moscow and New Delhi’s defence ties, while reflecting India’s strategic autonomy, also show a level of dependence that cannot be done away with at one go. Diplomatically, Russia remains a consistent backer of India at the United Nations Security Council. That Putin is here to stay for a long time to come is a reality not lost on India, and antagonising such a strategic partner makes little practical sense. Facing a grave threat from a belligerent China whose mask is off, India is wise to not throw away Russian help.
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With China, Russia has chosen to maintain an alliance of convenience with an eye on the US but has avoided playing second fiddle for Beijing and asserts the freedom to arm India against the Chinese threat. It is not a secret that the Russia-China bloc will endure only as long as the West antagonises Russia and uses punitive financial measures against it. When it comes to defence exports, Russia has reluctantly shared its flagship S-400 missile systems with China. Reluctantly, because Moscow, too, fears Chinese intellectual property theft and yet does not have a choice given the limited number of major markets it has access to. Western sanctions are at the root of this alliance that strengthens China, and consequently, Western sanctions on Russia threaten India’s interests in the long run. In fact, be it in Myanmar, Sri Lanka or Iran, Western sanctions have not only complicated things for India but also made China’s work easier.
Against such a backdrop, it is difficult to encourage America’s ways, let alone jump into USA’s battles. Not only has it failed to stop Russia, but has also emboldened China. The Indo-Pacific, the most crucial geopolitical expanse on the planet, has been left to seethe like a volcano ready to erupt.
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